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economic report
Economic Indicators
Sep 28, 2023
Bottom Line: The third reading of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP showed growth of 2.1% annualized, unchanged from prior reports. Consumption was notably lower, though, rising 0.8% in the quarter, down from a previously reported 1.7%. This suggests the consumer ended...
Sep 28, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose only slightly after falling five weeks. Seasonal factors had only a small impact on the reading last week. Moreover, there were no signs of any impact from the autoworker strike. State-level data showed only minor moves...
Sep 26, 2023
Bottom Line: Prices rose in July as the housing market continued to rebound in the months leading up to the latest surge in mortgage rates. Prices were higher in nearly every primary metro market, with the exception of Portland. Year-on-year...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell again in August, countering expectations for a small rebound. The medium-term trend in sales was lower again, even before much of the recent increase in mortgage rates. The long-term trend was firmly to the...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fifth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. This latest report was influenced by seasonal factors, which had expected an increase of nearly 18k versus actual unadjusted claims that were nearly...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing survey fell again, disappointing expectations after a surprise rebound last month. The bottoming process in the goods economy remains volatile. Nonetheless, there are signs of a slow turn in manufacturing after several quarters of...
Sep 20, 2023
As expected, the FOMC did not change its benchmark rate range from 5.25%-5.50%. The Fed maintained its projections for one more 25bp hike this year, however lowered its rate cuts from 1.00% to 0.50% for 2024, which implies rates are...
Sep 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rebounded sharply last week, led by a big surprising jump in the refi index. Mortgage rates continued to hover around 7.50% adjusted for points paid on the average 30-year fixed rate. While the jump in the...
Sep 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell sharply in August, much more than expected, hitting the lowest levels since the pandemic. The aways-volatile multifamily sector led the declines, though, suggesting the magnitude of the decline was likely just normal volatility. That said,...
Sep 15, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment fell more than expected in the preliminary September reading. Consumers' assessments of their current situation deteriorated modestly, correlating with the increase in gasoline prices. However, their year-ahead inflation expectations dropped sharply, down...
Sep 14, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose more than expected in August, with modest negative revisions to prior data that still left sales higher. Core sales were solid as online sales held flat after very strong gains in July amid Amazon's Prime...
Sep 14, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose more than expected than in August as the goods economy appears to be starting to bottom. Critical sectors like trade/transportation/warehousing saw notably higher prices. Processed and unprocessed goods prices were sharply higher, up 2.1% and...
Sep 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications hit another new low last week, as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovered around 7.50% adjusted for points paid. Purchase volumes were a touch higher but still near historic lows. Refis, meanwhile, had been holding well...
Sep 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose nearly as expected in August at the headline level, driven by higher gasoline prices. Core prices rose a bit more than expected, with an upside surprise in transportation services (mostly airfares). Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER),...
Sep 7, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fourth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor again, and claims in Ohio continued to fall as the state agency continued to work through fraud issues. Overall,...
Sep 6, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications hit another new low last week, despite a retreat in mortgage rates back below 7.50%. Averaging 7.41%, adjusted for points-paid, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was still 54 basis points above its one-year average, hampering affordability. The...
Aug 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the third week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor. Claims fell in Hawaii after a one-week jump following the devastating fire in Maui. Ohio, which had been struggling...
Aug 30, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported lower-than-expected hiring in August, but there were positive revisions to prior data, which had already surprised expectations four months running. This report has had a waning correlation with nonfarm payrolls in the national employment report (due...
Aug 30, 2023
Bottom Line: The second reading of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP showed growth of 2.1% annualized, revised lower by 30 basis points. Nonresidential fixed investment drove the negative revisions, accounting for 20 of the 30 basis points, while inventories flipped from...
Aug 29, 2023
Bottom Line: Prices rose in June as the housing market continued to rebound in the months leading up to the latest surge in mortgage rates. Prices were higher in nearly every primary metro market. The strongest markets were some of...
Aug 29, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed sharply lower job openings in July and negative revisions to prior data. Moreover, the quit rate continued to trend lower, following the trend in openings. While the level of openings...
Aug 29, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in August, well below expectations. Consumers reported a more dour mood about their current situation and future expectations. The survey's economist noted that many respondents expressed concerns about another increase...
Aug 25, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment edged slightly lower in the final reading for August. Consumers said current conditions were a touch weaker, and their future expectations were moderately lower. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 3.50%, the...
Aug 24, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the second week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor. Claims jumped in Hawaii following the devastating fire in Maui but were lower in Ohio, which had been struggling...
Aug 23, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell again last week, hitting a record low as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage pushed above 7.50%. While secondary mortgage market spreads to Treasuries stabilized in the last week, Treasury yields continued to push higher. Purchase...
Aug 23, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales rose in July but were revised lower in June. On a trend basis, sales are rising modestly. Inventories are rising slightly but not keeping pace with the increase in sales, with months' supply falling...
Aug 22, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell slightly more than expected in July after 30-year fixed-rate mortgages surged above 7% again. Sales had been turning modestly higher amid solid underlying demand, despite lower affordability due to higher mortgage rates. But with...
Aug 17, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell modestly last week after rising for two weeks. Seasonal adjustments were minor, and there were no state-level aberrations, although there were lingering concerns about fraud in Ohio. Claims are historically low, and the trend is mixed....
Aug 17, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing survey was sharply higher than expected, rising to levels suggesting expansion for the first time in a year. New orders led the gains as shipments rose for the second time in three months. Nearly...
Aug 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell again last week as mortgage rates pushed higher amid continued spread widening in the secondary market. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged nearly 7 3/8% (adjusted for points paid) as the current coupon spread in the secondary...
Aug 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts rose moderately in July but were only higher after negative revisions to June data. Starts were still trending modestly higher through July, but the upward trend was losing some momentum amid another push higher in mortgage...
Aug 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose sharply more than expected in July, led by online sales amid Amazon's Prime Day and another jump in spending at restaurants and bars. Spending growth was modest to robust across nearly all categories except home...
Aug 11, 2023
Bottom Line: As expected, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment edged slightly lower in early August. The index of current conditions edged slightly higher, but future expectations were modestly lower. While year-ahead inflation expectations were still above the long-term average...
Aug 11, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose slightly more than expected than in July. But the trend continued to fall towards sub-2% annualized readings on pipeline inflation. Core PPI was just under 2.4% above year-ago levels, but annualizing at just 1.7% and...
Aug 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose for the second time in six weeks, rebounding to nearly 250k. The reading was well above the average of the last four weeks but still below the highs seen in June. Claims in Ohio jumped slightly...
Aug 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose nearly as expected in July, with core and headline readings up less than 0.2% for the second consecutive month. The headline CPI edged up to 3.3% year-on-year, primarily due to less favorable base effects. But...
Aug 9, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell again last week as mortgage rates pushed higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged over 7 1/4% (adjusted for points paid) for only the second time since the highs seen in 4Q22. The purchase index neared its...
Aug 3, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of the services sector fell slightly more than expected in July but remained at levels suggested modest to moderate growth. New order growth was moderate, and backorders rose for the first month in six as...
Aug 3, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose for the first time in five weeks, rebounding slightly. Still, initial and continuing claims were trending lower throughout most of July. The four-week average for claims in the final full week of July was down to...
Aug 3, 2023
Bottom Line: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an even stronger-than-expected rebound in productivity, the first increase yearly increase since 4Q21, as output increased 2.4% and hours worked decreased 1.3% annualized in the 2nd Quarter. The decline in hours worked...
Aug 2, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported sharply better-than-expected hiring again in July (the fourth consecutive upside surprise). While slower than the June gains of 455k, July's 324k increase brought the three-month average to nearly 350k, notably faster than the pace of the...
Aug 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell again last week as mortgage rates pushed higher. Averaging 7 1/8% adjusted for points paid in July, mortgage rates were 3/8ths of a point above their one-year average. Moreover, the 7% rate has proven an...
Aug 1, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed sharply lower job openings in June, and (unlike in May) there were downward revisions to previously reported openings. Importantly, the quit rate, which had been ticking surprisingly higher again, resumed...
Aug 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers edged slightly higher in July but was still below expectations and firmly in contraction territory. On the plus side, manufacturers reported notably slower declines in new orders and production levels. But inventories...
Jul 28, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was down just slightly in late July but still well above last month's reading. Consumers are generally less concerned about inflation and report stability in the labor market. However, the lowest-income...
Jul 27, 2023
Bottom Line: The advance reading of 2nd Quarter 2023 GDP was well above expectations at 2.4% annualized quarter-on-quarter, led by gains in services consumption and nonresidential investment. Goods consumption rose only slightly, but government spending was higher. Trade was a...
Jul 27, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fourth week, surprising to the downside again. We have had plenty of seasonal adjustment excuses for weeks from the Juneteenth holiday through the week after Independence Day. But those factors should be fading into...
Jul 26, 2023
As expected, the FOMC raised its benchmark rate by 25bp to a new range of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest fed funds rate level in 22Ys. This marks the 11th rate hike since the Fed began hiking in March 2022, when the...
Jul 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell slightly more than expected in June after 30-year fixed-rate mortgages surged towards 7% in late May. Still, we continue to see signs of stabilization with solid underlying demand despite lower affordability. Inventories of existing...
Jul 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the third week, surprising to the downside. However, the tally was unchanged on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting the Juneteenth and 4th of July holidays continue to have a lingering impact on the headline data....
Jul 20, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing survey was lower than expected, firmly in contraction territory for the 13th month in the last 14. The details, including current new orders and shipments, were as weak as the headline. Input price pressures...
Jul 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing Starts fell more than expected in June, and there were negative revisions to prior data. The new home market continues to perform better than existing home sales as demand remains robust, despite worse affordability. But this...
Jul 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales were slightly less than expected in June at the headline level. But core sales were in line to slightly stronger than expected. Moreover, there were modest upward revisions to prior data. Auto and parts dealers saw...
Jul 14, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose sharply more than expected in the preliminary reading for July. Hitting the highest levels since 2021 and before the spike in consumer price inflation, the survey revealed that all but...
Jul 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the second week, surprising to the downside. Seasonal adjustments continue to impact the headline number with last week's 4th of July holiday. Unadjusted claims were higher. And with two holidays in the last four weeks...
Jul 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose even less than expected again in June as pipeline inflation on the goods side of the economy continues to decelerate sharply. At the headline level, producer prices have seen deflation in the last three- and...
Jul 12, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell last week by about 20%, almost exactly the reduction in the workweek for the 4th of July holiday. That left the headline number nearly flat, a rather impressive reading given the violent move higher in...
Jul 12, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose less than expected in June, with both core and headline readings up less than 0.2% on the month. The headline CPI is now down to just 3% year-on-year, thanks to base effects and a slowing...
Jul 6, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported sharply better-than-expected hiring again in June (the third consecutive beat). Hiring was most robust in the leisure and hospitality segment but only modestly higher than the averages of the last few months. The big surprises came...
Jul 6, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell in the week leading into the 4th of July holiday, which many people took as an extended long weekend. The MBA makes no adjustments for seasonal events when there is no clear impact on the...
Jul 6, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of the services sector rose sharply more than expected in June as employment rose amid accelerating new orders. When available prior to the nonfarm payroll report, the employment component of this services survey is a...
Jul 6, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed sharply lower job openings in May, but there were upward revisions to previously reported openings. Lagged relative to most labor reports and our nowcast forecasts, the JOLTS survey is helpful...
Jul 3, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers fell in June, countering expectations for a small increase. On the plus side, manufacturers reported sharply lower input prices. New orders contracted slightly less than in the prior month, but production levels...
Jul 3, 2023
Bottom Line: Construction spending rose more than expected in May, and there were positive revisions to prior data. While these data are lagged and prone to revision, the trend improved notably late in the 1st Quarter and into the 2nd....
Jun 30, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was modestly higher in the final reading, continuing to rise after a sharp rebound in early June. Consumers' expectations for year-ahead inflation fell early in the month and were steady in...
Jun 29, 2023
Bottom Line: The third reading of 1st Quarter 2023 GDP was revised surprisingly higher, led by consumption. Consumer spending on services was notably higher, led by spending on health care. Nonresidential investment edged higher, but residential fixed investment was lower....
Jun 29, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week after two weeks of readings near the cycle high. These data were collected over the week including the Juneteenth holiday. Given the holiday is a new federal holiday that has yet to be...
Jun 28, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity rose modestly again last week as mortgage rates held below 7% on the average 30-year fixed-rate and housing activity continued to show signs of bottoming. Applications for purchases and refinancings rose. Secondary mortgage spreads to Treasuries...
Jun 27, 2023
Bottom Line: Home prices rose sharply more than expected in April, with all but one major market (Phoenix) seeing higher prices. Colder markets, which had some of the weakest price performance even before 2022's downturn, including Cleveland, New York, and...
Jun 27, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales rose sharply more than expected in May. The tight supply conditions continued, driving median prices higher. Mortgage rates dipped, holding consistently below 7% for all of May, motivating sidelined buyers worried about high mortgage...
Jun 27, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose moderately in June, with the current situation index nearing a two-year high. Surprisingly, more consumers surveyed said jobs were "plentiful," while slightly fewer saw jobs as "hard to get." Income expectations,...
Jun 22, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales rose slightly in May, countering expectations for a modest further decline. Sales continue to offer the potential for a bottom off the lows since January. That said, single-family sales were slightly lower in May. Inventories...
Jun 22, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were steady again last week, holding near the highest levels since early in the pandemic. There were slight negative revisions to the prior week's data, but no states reported significant issues. Texas officials reported that layoffs were...
Jun 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage activity rose slightly on an uptick in purchase applications as housing activity continues to show signs of bottoming. Refinancing applications were modestly lower, despite a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell eight...
Jun 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts rose sharply in May, jumping 21.7% from the April revised reading. While there were negative revisions to April data, the overall upside surprise was significant. Single-family activity jumped to its highest level in 11 months as...
Jun 14, 2023
As expected, the FOMC did not change its benchmark rate range from 5.00%-5.25%. This is the first pause since the Federal Reserve began hiking in March 2022. The updated forecast projects two more rate hikes this year, toping out at...
Jun 16, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rebounded sharply in early June as consumers' expectations for year-ahead inflation fell. The resolution to the debt ceiling and mostly stable gasoline prices had consumers feeling better. That said, by historical...
Jun 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were nearly steady on a seasonally adjusted basis last week but rose nearly 28k on an unadjusted basis. Sitting near cycle highs, the level of claims bears close watching in the coming weeks. The most recent spike...
Jun 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales were slightly stronger than expected in May, but the trend remained towards deceleration with downward revisions to prior data. Sales at auto and parts dealers were modestly higher than expected, driving the headline figure. Grocery store...
Jun 14, 2023
Bottom Line: The 7% level on the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has proven to be a remarkable barrier to mortgage activity. Rates fell below it, averaging 6.96% last week, and activity jumped. While we should caveat that seasonal adjustments have...
Jun 14, 2023
Bottom Line: The Producer Price Index fell more than expected in May, with the headline down 0.3% and core prices flat. The year-on-year reading for the headline index was down to just +1.1%. Excluding the volatile food and energy segments,...
Jun 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose as expected in May with lower gasoline prices. Core CPI rose 0.44% on the month, slightly faster than in April. Core commodity prices were mostly higher, while services excluding rents were sharply lower. Used car...
Jun 8, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were sharply higher than expected at 261k, the highest since October 30, 2021. Claims in Ohio jumped over 60%, accounting for over 25% of the total increase in the week. While volatility in an individual state is...
Jun 7, 2023
Bottom Line: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 7% last week after hitting 7.15%, the highest level of this year. But mortgage applications were still down slightly as the sudden surge in rates in the last few weeks continued...
Jun 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Nonfarm payrolls rose sharply more than expected in May, and there were positive revisions to prior months. The three-month average of payroll gains rose from 222k to 283k as the trend rate of job growth was stable at...
Jun 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Construction spending rose more than expected in April, and there were positive revisions to prior data. While these data are lagged and prone to revision, the trends were improving late in the 1st Quarter and into the 2nd....
Jun 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers fell slightly in May. While firmly in contraction territory, there were signs of a potential bottoming in activity. New orders retreated to the lowest levels of this cycle, but production increased for...
Jun 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were slightly lower than expected last week, with the trend mostly sideways after the increase early this year. The State of Massachusetts reported lower claims again after officials in the Bay State discovered a wave of fraudulent...
Jun 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported better-than-expected hiring again in May, with payrolls rising 278k, well above the consensus estimates looking for 170k. While the magnitude of the gains was remarkably strong and suggests labor markets remain tight, the details offered a...
May 31, 2023
Bottom Line: The average 30-year fixed-rate in the primary mortgage market blew through 7%, hitting 7.15% last week as secondary mortgage market spreads to Treasuries widened sharply. As we said in recent weeks, holding below the psychologically important 7% rate...
May 31, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed higher-than-expected job openings in April. But importantly, the quit rate continued lower, suggesting employees are less confident that the labor market is so tight they can quickly get a new...
May 30, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell less than expected in April, as consumers' assessments of their current conditions fell sharply, but their future outlooks slipped only slightly. Their assessments of the jobs markets led the decline in...
May 30, 2023
Bottom Line: Home prices rose for only the second time in nine months in March, countering expectations for a flat nationwide reading. A bit over half the markets in the 20-city index saw gains, with Detroit and Portland leading, up...
May 26, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rebounded slightly in the latter half of May, but year-ahead expectations for the economy were still down 17% from April, with long-run expectations down 14%. Consumers remain concerned about the debt...
May 25, 2023
Bottom Line: The second reading of 1st Quarter 2023 GDP saw modest positive revisions on the back of stronger consumption readings late in the quarter. Consumer spending on services was modestly stronger late in the quarter. Moreover, the drag from...
May 25, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were sharply lower than previously reported, with the State of Massachusetts reporting sharply lower claims and revising previous weeks' data lower amid a wave of fraudulent claims in the last several weeks. Claims still remain modestly higher...
May 24, 2023
Bottom Line: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose sharply again last week. And the average rate edged slightly higher in the first two days of this week but was holding just below the psychologically important 7% level. Applications fell for...
May 23, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales rose sharply in April, but there were negative revisions to March data that countered the positive surprise. Builders continue to work off inventory, which rose much less than sales, leaving months' supply lower again....
May 18, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing survey showed a smaller-than-expected contraction in activity. New orders and shipments continued to contract but at a slower pace than earlier this year. Prices paid remained firm, edging modestly higher. Employment fell for the...
May 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales slid mostly as expected in April, with slight negative revisions to prior data. Inventories rose slightly but remained historically very low at just 2.90 months of supply (sales/inventories), above the average of the last three...
May 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims corrected sharply lower after a surprise increase in the prior week. Claims in Massachusetts accounted for nearly all of the volatility amid reports of a spike in fraudulent claims and a subsequent state investigation. Claims still remain...
May 17, 2023
Bottom Line: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edged higher last week, up 6.74%, as spreads to Treasuries in the secondary market remained near the widest levels of the year. Applications fell for both purchased and refis. Still, we continue to...
May 17, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts rose as expected in April, but there were modest negative revisions to prior data. Single- and multi-family starts edged higher, but there was a marked shift within multi-family permits -- 5+ unit developments slowed sharply after...
May 16, 2023
Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve's industrial production report for April showed a better rebound in activity than many of the manufacturing surveys suggested. Auto production led the gains, jumping over 9% on the month, while food- and beverage-related production led...
May 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales rebounded less than expected in April, but net of revisions, sales were mainly in line with expectations. Auto sales rebounded only modestly after two months of sharp declines, while core sales, led by online, rebounded a...
May 12, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed a surprisingly sharp decline in early May. The future expectation index hit its lowest level since the initial inflation spike early last year, and the current conditions index hit its...
May 11, 2023
Bottom Line: PPI rose modestly in April, as expected, at both the headline and core level as energy and most commodity-related prices rebounded. Still, the rebound was modest, and trends remained firmly toward decelerating price pressures. Final demand services have...
May 11, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose sharply more than expected in the first week of May. The increase put claims nearly 20k above the highs of this cycle. While seasonal factors added to the increase, the gains were broad, and no one...
May 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Primary mortgage rates were steady last week as secondary mortgage market yields edged lower (and were lower still through yesterday). That helped push mortgage applications higher, led by a continued rebound in refinancing activity. While wide spreads to...
May 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose as expected in April with higher gasoline prices but lower utility prices. Core CPI rose 0.41% on the month, just slightly faster than in March. Core commodity prices were mostly higher, while services prices, which...
May 5, 2023
Bottom Line: Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in April, but there were negative revisions to prior months that more than offset the better headline reading. The three-month average of payroll gains fell from 345k to 222k as the trend...
May 4, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose modestly, more than expected, in the final week of April and were near the high end of the recent range. Since the Department of Labor's annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model in the first week...
May 4, 2023
Bottom Line: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported even lower than expected productivity for the 1st Quarter as output gained just 0.15%, but hours worked increased nearly 3% in the quarter. Unit labor costs continued to increase as hourly compensation...
May 3, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates stabilized into month-end after rising in the 2nd half of April, and mortgage applications were slightly lower amid continued uncertainty in the regional banking sector. Secondary mortgage spreads to Treasuries continued to widen as markets expect...
May 3, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported better-than-expected hiring in April, with payrolls rising 296k, well above the consensus estimates looking for 148k. Hiring in leisure and hospitality led the gains, with the sector adding the most jobs since last May. Education and...
May 2, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed lower-than-expected job openings, dropping to a new cycle low. Layoffs also increased modestly. While the level of openings and the rates of voluntary quits are still high, the trend has...
May 2, 2023
Bottom Line: The Factory Orders report confirmed the continued declines in March that were reported in surveys and initial durable goods reports. While the headline durable goods number was higher, most other core segments were lower, and nearly all continued...
May 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Construction spending rose more than expected in March, but there were negative revisions to prior data, and trends remained firmly lower. While these data are lagged and prone to revision, the trends remain clear. Residential spending showed no...
May 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers rose a touch more than expected in April but remained below 50, suggesting continued contraction. Declines in new orders and production decelerated. Prices paid rose for the second time in the last...
Apr 27, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week, countering expectations for another modest increase. The Easter holiday impacted the seasonally adjusted data. For now, claims sit at the low end of the range over the last six weeks. While the level...
Apr 27, 2023
Bottom Line: The advance reading of 1st Quarter 2023 GDP showed a gain of 1.1%, less than the consensus, though close to model estimates following revisions to consumption data earlier this week. That said, consumption gains were stronger than expected...
Apr 26, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week, averaging nearly 6 3/4% adjusted for points paid. Applications rebounded modestly, though, led by applications for purchases. Secondary mortgage yields have managed to move lower this week, despite the threat...
Apr 25, 2023
Bottom Line: Home prices rose for the first time in eight months in February, beating expectations for another slight decline. Prices were mixed across regions, with several metro statistical areas (MSAs) declining significantly. Los Angeles (down nearly 1%) and San...
Apr 25, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales rose sharply in March, countering expectations for a further decline. There were negative revisions to February data, but those were nearly offset by positive revisions to January data. Just as we have seen in...
Apr 25, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell in April, led lower by slumping future expectations. While individuals' expectations for their personal income prospects were unchanged, they were more pessimistic about the outlook for business conditions and the labor...
Apr 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose to 245k, reaching the high end of the range of the last two months, and still sharply higher on the year. Since the Department of Labor's annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model in the first...
Apr 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Countering the surprising strength in the New York Fed survey, the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing survey showed another sharp drop in activity. However, the details weren't quite as bad as the headline. New orders and shipments contracted at a...
Apr 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell more than expected in March after rebounding in February from decade-plus lows in January. Supply conditions remain very tight, with months' supply (sales/inventory) holding at just 2.6 months. Supply remains very tight, with homeowners...
Apr 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates rose last week. Secondary mortgage yields continued higher early this week, and spreads to Treasuries widened further. Applications tumbled, led by purchase apps, which were down nearly 10%. While there are still hints of a bottoming,...
Apr 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell less than expected in March as single-family starts rose for the third month, but multi-family declined. Large multi-family developments slowed most sharply, but the segment was still historically quite robust. Single-family activity, meanwhile, had been...
Apr 14, 2023
Bottom Line: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey rose more than expected in early April, and year-ahead inflation expectations jumped sharply. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, the highest since November. However, we...
Apr 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices fell for the third time in the last four months in March. With core prices lower, the report was well below expectations. While there were upward revisions to previously reported, the trend remained decidedly lower. Goods...
Apr 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose more than expected last week, rebounding to the middle of the range of the last six weeks, which is still well above last year's average. Recall that last week the Department of Labor made annual...
Apr 12, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose only slightly in March, in line with expectations, as energy prices fell. Core CPI was up 0.38%, down just slightly from 0.45% in February. Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), the largest component of core, was up...
Apr 7, 2023
Bottom Line: Nonfarm payrolls rose as expected in March, up 236k, the slowest gains in over two years. Private sector job gains were particularly slow as government hiring jumped. Construction and manufacturing shed jobs, as did retail trade. Jobs in...
Apr 6, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were revised sharply higher following the annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model. Claims in the week ended March 25 were revised nearly 50k higher to 246k. Last week declined 18k to 228k but was still...
Apr 5, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell after several weeks of surprisingly stronger activity. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held steady in the 6 1/2 to 6 5/8% range. The level of mortgage applications remains historically low, but we continue to see...
Apr 5, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported less-than-expected hiring in March, with payrolls rising 145k, well below the consensus estimates looking for 210k. Payrolls declined notably in professional and business services (often jobs in legal and consulting firms), financial activities (accountants, investments, etc),...
Apr 4, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed lower-than-expected job openings in February, with openings falling below 10 million and hitting their lowest level of this cycle. Moreover, there were downward revisions to previously reported data. Openings were...
Apr 3, 2023
Bottom Line: Construction spending, lagged and prone to significant revisions, was revised higher for December and January but fell in February. The trend in residential construction has continued to the downside, but the pace of declines has slowed. Nonresidential construction...
Apr 3, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers fell more than expected in March as new orders contracted sharply, and employment dropped significantly. Nearly every key category remained at levels suggesting continued contraction as the headline index hits its lowest...
Mar 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment fell even further in the second half of March after dropping in the days leading up to the bank failures, according to the University of Michigan's latest revisions to its survey. On the plus side, year-ahead...
Mar 30, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose slightly more than expected last week, pushing back towards 200k. Claims in Michigan, still a state where jobless claims are heavily influenced by the auto industry, rose sharply, nearly doubling to 9.2k. While too early...
Mar 30, 2023
Bottom Line: The 4th Quarter ended on a slow note for consumption. GDP was revised from 2.7% to 2.6% in the third estimate. That's down from 2.9% in the advance reading, with consumption dropping from gains of 2.1% in the...
Mar 29, 2023
Bottom Line: Despite historically high mortgage rates (30-year fixed still over 6.5%) and bank failures, mortgage applications continued to rise modestly over the last four weeks. Gains were led by applications for refinancing last week as purchase applications also rose...
Mar 28, 2023
Bottom Line: Home prices fell for the seventh consecutive month in January, dropping slightly less than expected. Declines were the largest in the West, led by the San Francisco Bay Area. The hardest hit regions, especially California, Oregon and Washington,...
Mar 28, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded modestly in March after surprisingly sharp declines in February. However, the index remains depressed with the expectations component below 80, a level that historically signals recession, in 12 of the last...
Mar 23, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell slightly last week, coming in below expectations for a modest increase. Claims have remained historically low and have shown no signs of edging higher, despite significant layoff announcements in the tech sector. To the extent...
Mar 23, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales in February were lower than expected, and there were downward revisions to January's surprisingly strong data. Average sale prices inched higher. Overall, new home sales bottomed in 3rd Quarter of 2022 and have been...
Mar 22, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose for the third consecutive week, despite massive interest rate volatility and banking uncertainty. The 30-year mortgage rate fell sharply, dropping to an average of 6 5/8% after hitting 7% early in the month. Applications for...
Mar 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales rebounded in February after hitting decade-plus lows in January. While the rebound was statistically significant and much sharper than expected, it is still too early to call a turn in the trend. Moreover, seasonal adjustments...
Mar 17, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment fell sharply in the first half of March, according to the University of Michigan survey, dropping even before the news of bank failures. 85% of survey responses were collected before the SVB bank failure. Declining for...
Mar 16, 2023
Bottom Line: The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index remained deeply in contraction territory in February as new orders continued to decline. Shipments were sharply lower, as were unfilled orders. Employment, which had been holding up in this sector and...
Mar 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell sharply last week after jumping for the first time in five weeks. There were no major seasonal adjustments last week. Moreover, the surprising increases we saw in New York reversed almost entirely, while those in...
Mar 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices fell in February, with core prices flat, well below expectations. After strong gains in January, producer prices in February were led lower by food prices, as well as energy. But perhaps even more important than the...
Mar 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales fell in line with expectations in February as core sales rose, beating expectations for a modest decline. Vehicle and gasoline sales led the headline decline, but continued robust online sales drove the control group higher. Sales...
Mar 14, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose in February, mostly as expected, as gasoline prices rose further. Core CPI was up 0.45%, stubbornly robust as Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), the largest component of core, was up 0.7%, consistent with the long historic...
Mar 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose last week, despite the turmoil in the banking system. Even as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage still averaged close to 7%, according to the survey, mortgage bankers saw a jump in both refi and purchase applications....
Mar 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in February. There were modest negative revisions to January's exceptionally strong numbers. The labor force participation rate rose modestly, pushing the unemployment rate higher. Average hourly earnings rose more slowly than expected.Job...
Mar 9, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose sharply last week after hitting five-week lows in late February. Increasing to 211k on a seasonally adjusted basis, the jump was even larger without the seasonal adjustments. Claims in California and New York drove the...
Mar 8, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed higher-than-expected job openings for the third consecutive month. While openings declined to start the year, there were upward revisions to previously reported data. That said, the quit rate, an indicator...
Mar 8, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose last week, despite the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage pushing back above 7% for the first time since November. Purchase applications led the gains as potential buyers on the fence jumped to lock-in rates amid renewed...
Mar 8, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported a rebound in the pace of hiring in February, with payrolls rising 242k, well above the consensus estimates looking for 200k. Moreover, the January data, which had missed expectations to the downside, were revised modestly higher....
Mar 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims dropped to their lowest level in five weeks, dropping to 190k, below expectations for a rebound to 195k. Our Nowcast model has also confirmed the stubbornly low level of claims, with this week running nearly unchanged...
Mar 2, 2023
Bottom Line: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual benchmark revisions resulted in sharply lower productivity in the 4th Quarter than previously reported. Output growth was only modestly lower, but unit labor costs were sharply higher. Compensation costs were nearly 200...
Mar 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell again last week as the average 30-year fixed rate rose to nearly 7%, up from 6 3/8% in late January on the average 30-year fixed rate. Purchase applications hit a new low as applications for...
Mar 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Construction spending, lagged and prone to significant revisions, helps pin down the impact of residential investment on quarterly growth -- and the first quarter started on a dour note. Residential construction spending fell 0.55% in the first month...
Mar 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers stayed below 50, edging only slightly higher, less than expected, as new order growth continued to slow, albeit at a slightly slower pace of decline. Production declined further in February, and inventories...
Feb 28, 2023
Bottom Line: Home prices fell for the sixth consecutive month in December, dropping even more than expected. Every major market fell in December. Declines were most extensive in the West, with Portland, the L.A. area, Seattle, and Phoenix leading the...
Feb 28, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in February, countering expectations for a further rebound. Consumers' assessments of their current situations edged slightly higher, but their expectations about the future fell sharply, mostly reflecting large drops in...
Feb 24, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment edged modestly higher throughout February, according to the final reading of the University of Michigan's survey. Consumers' reports about the current conditions in the economy edged slightly lower, while their future expectations rose relative to earlier...
Feb 24, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales in January were slightly better than expected, as builders discounted homes sharply. Average and median prices fell 8 to 13% on the month. Anecdotal evidence suggests homebuilders have been offering discounts and buying down...
Feb 23, 2023
Bottom Line: The 4th Quarter ended on a slow note for consumption. GDP was revised from 2.9% to 2.7%, with consumption dropping from gains of 2.1% to just 1.4% annualized on the Quarter. This suggests the consumer finished the 4th...
Feb 23, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims dropped to their lowest level in four weeks, countering expectations for a rebound to 200k. Our Nowcast model suggested declines last week and suggests claims have remained stubbornly low this week. While the models have forecast...
Feb 22, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates rose sharply again last week, rebounding to 6.84% from 6 3/8% in late January on the average 30-year fixed rate. Purchase applications hit a new low as applications for refinancing edged lower. Despite most homeowners enjoying...
Feb 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell further to start 2023, countering expectations for a slight increase. On the plus side, the pace of the slowdown has started to lose downward momentum on a trend basis. The price of the average...
Feb 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were little changed last week, surprisingly holding below 200k again. The short-term trend in claims remained lower and the medium- to longer-term trends were mixed, with continuing claims still trending slightly higher. Our Nowcast model suggests...
Feb 16, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell sharply in February after rebounding in January. The details were not quite as negative as the headline, as the ISM-weighted index was only slightly negative with modest new order declines....
Feb 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell slightly less more expected in January, and December data was revised lower. Multi-family starts, which had remained surprisingly robust, fell for the second straight month and were heading modestly lower on a trend basis. Single-family...
Feb 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose more than expected in January as energy prices rebounded. Core prices saw their biggest gains since last May. Goods prices, especially processed goods, rebounded as service prices continued to increase modestly. While trade, transportation and...
Feb 15, 2023
Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve's industrial production report for January offered more "hard data" to confirm what the "soft" (survey data) showed for much of the 2nd half of 2022. While not quite as weak as the survey data suggested,...
Feb 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates rose sharply last week, putting a damper on mortgage applications and highlighting how sensitive homebuyers and potential refinancings remain to rates. The effective average 30-year mortgage rate jumped nearly a 1/4 point to 6.60%, responding to...
Feb 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose more than expected in January as core sales rebounded by 2.6% after falling in December. We should keep in mind, though, that seasonal factors are significant and have caused December to miss expectations and January...
Feb 14, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose in January, mostly as expected, as gasoline rose, pushing the headline back to showing gains after December's declines. As expected, core prices rose 0.4%, led by Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), the largest component of core,...
Feb 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment edged slightly higher in early February, despite an increase in year-ahead inflation expectations. The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan's survey showed consumers still feel unease about high prices and concerns about...
Feb 9, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose sharply last week after several weeks of declines. The short-term trend in claims remained lower and the medium- to longer-term trends were mixed, with continuing claims still trending slightly higher. Our Nowcast model continues to...
Feb 8, 2023
Bottom Line: After declining in the final week of January, mostly due to seasonal adjustments around the MLK holiday, mortgage applications rebounded last week. Primary mortgage rates eased lower, with the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage below 6 3/8%, well...
Feb 7, 2023
Bottom Line: The US trade deficit widened slightly in December after tightening in November on the back of slower imports. November's reading was enough to keep net trade a net positive for 4th Quarter GDP growth. Cell phone's drove the...
May 4, 2022
Bottom Line: The US trade deficit widened even more than expected in March as both imports and exports rose sharply amid higher prices. As the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia started, the US imported more finished metal products...
Jul 7, 2022
Bottom Line: The U.S. trade deficit declined slightly for the second month in May as exports rose more than imports. Crude oil exports led to the improvement on the export side as feeds, especially soybeans, declined. Industrial supplies were higher...
Aug 4, 2022
Bottom Line: The US trade deficit declined slightly for the third month in June as exports rose and imports fell slightly. The goods trade deficit improved sharply in the final months of the 2nd Quarter as consumer demand slowed and...
Oct 5, 2022
Bottom Line: The US trade deficit declined for the fifth consecutive month in August as imports fell modestly and exports only fell slightly with the goods sectors driving the changes. Crude oil imports drove the declines in imports, but we...
Nov 3, 2022
Bottom Line: The US trade deficit grew more negative for the first time in six months as imports increased moderately and exports slipped. Apple's new iPhone boosted consumer goods imports in September as pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, and civilian aircraft also...
Feb 3, 2023
Bottom Line: Nonfarm payrolls rose sharply more than expected in January, jumping 517k with positive revisions to previously reported data. Seasonal adjustments, always big in January, had an even larger than usual upward impact, likely adding over 200k to the...
Feb 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Productivity rose 3% annualized in the 4th Quarter, better than expected, as until output increased sharply more than hours worked. Unit labor costs rose 1.1%, reflecting a 4.1% increase in hourly compensation against the gain in productivity. With...
Feb 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims surprisingly fell last week and were firmly trending lower again, having bounced in the 180-250k range for nearly a year, despite headlines about layoffs at major corporations. Moreover, the trend in continuing claims has lost all...
May 31, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices rose more than expected for the fifth consecutive month in March, despite higher mortgage rates and sales activity slowing. Case-Shiller's index of home prices tends to be lagged but it offers greater detail than most other...
Jun 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices rose again in April, even as activity started to slow with sharply higher mortgage rates. Case-Shiller's index of home prices tends to be lagged but it offers greater detail than most other indicators. Miami and Tampa...
Jul 26, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices rose again in May, even as activity started to slow with sharply higher mortgage rates. Gains were less than expected, though, as homes in metro areas like Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and even once-hot San Diego...
Aug 30, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices rose again in June, but those gains were notably slower, missing expectations as higher mortgage rates started to take a toll on sales. Western markets started to see declines in June as Florida markets remained hot...
Sep 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices fell sharply in July, surprising expectations for a small gain, notching losses not seen since the years around the financial crisis. Expensive markets, where home buyers rely heavily on high-balance mortgage loans, tumbled sharply. Seattle led...
Oct 25, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices fell sharply in August, falling more than expected for the second month, with nearly every major market in the 20-city index seeing lower prices. The most significant declines were in the West and Southwest - Seattle...
Nov 29, 2022
Bottom Line: Home prices fell sharply in September, falling for the third consecutive month, mostly as expected. The declines in the third quarter annualized at 12.5%, a pace we have only seen during the financial crisis. Price declines started in...
Jan 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Home prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in November, dropping slightly less than expected. Declines were most prominent in the West, from Phoenix west and north to Seattle. Year-over-year gains were down to the low single-digits in...
Feb 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported a notable slowdown in the pace of hiring in January with payrolls rising 106k, well below consensus estimates looking for 180k. There were modest upward revisions to prior months, but not enough to offset the surprise...
Feb 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Despite a further drop in primary mortgage market rates, mortgage applications tumbled in the last full week of January. Much of the decline, though, was due to difficult seasonal adjustments following the MLK holiday. The average 30-year fixed...
Feb 1, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers stayed below 50, demarcating contraction, for the third month as the drop in new orders accelerated lower. The new order index in January remained close to levels historically associated with recessions. Moreover,...
Feb 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Construction spending fell in the final month of 2022, coming in below expectations for flat activity. While there were positive revisions to prior data, they weren't enough to make up for the headline miss. Residential construction continued to...
Feb 1, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed sharply higher job openings for the second consecutive month, closing 2022 back over 11 million. There was a big jump in openings for jobs in leisure and hospitality that drove...
Jan 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Chicago ISM's report showed another month of slower activity, with the index dropping again for the fifth month in the last seven after a surprise increase in December. Production decelerated again in the Chicagoland area, with many respondents...
Jan 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Total employment costs including benefits and wages rose less than 1% in the 4th Quarter, continuing a modest deceleration in 2022. Benefit costs slowed most notably over the year, while wage and salary gains only slowed materially in...
Jan 31, 2023
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell modestly in January after the rebound in December was revised higher. Consumers' expectations for strong labor markets eased just a bit while their outlooks for business conditions deteriorated. Countering the lower...
Jan 27, 2023
Bottom Line: The final reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan's survey confirmed the sharp increase to nine-month highs that was reported earlier this month. Consumers' expectations for inflation continued to decline, dropping another tenth in the last...
Jan 26, 2023
Bottom Line: New home sales in December were slightly better than expected, but there were negative revisions to previously reported data, leaving sales near levels seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Unlike in the existing home...
Jan 26, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell last week, countering expectations for a rebound in the week that included the Monday Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. While the seasonal factor was significant, weather likely played a role, with claims in California dropping...
Jan 26, 2023
Bottom Line: The advanced reading of 4th Quarter GDP was better than expected, led by consumer spending on services and a rebound in inventories. Goods consumption was slightly stronger after three quarters of declines. Residential fixed investment was a drag,...
Jan 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell further in the final month of 2022, but the declines were modestly less than expected. Sales in the 4th Quarter were nearly a million annualized units below the 12-month average, and 2022's average (5.1...
Jan 25, 2023
Bottom Line: The primary mortgage market continued to show signs of life last week, benefiting from a modest decline in mortgage rates this year. Purchase applications rose to their highest level since October and, while still historically low, continued to...
Jan 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell slightly less than expected in December, but November data was revised lower. Single-family starts rose to a four-month high, while multi-family, which had remained surprisingly robust, fell sharply. However, some of the gains in single-family...
Jan 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell last week, sharply more than expected. And while some of the surprises in late December and early January were due to difficult season adjustments, the latest week was free of anomalous factors. The labor market...
Jan 19, 2023
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity rose for the first month in five in January, coming in better than expected. Moreover, there were positive revisions to earlier data. On an ISM-weighted basis, the index edged ever so...
Jan 18, 2023
Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve's industrial production report for December offered "hard data" to continue to confirm what we saw in the "soft" (survey) data throughout the 2nd Half of '22. The auto sector saw a second month of declines...
Jan 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Producer prices fell more than expected at the headline level in December as energy prices slumped. Core prices saw continued slower inflation as services, especially those related to transportation and warehousing, joined the slowdown in goods prices that...
Jan 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Retail sales fell more than expected in December as core sales tumbled nearly 0.7% on the month, closing 2022 on a slow note. Among the "core" categories, online sales fell over 1%, while restaurants and bars saw sales...
Jan 13, 2023
Bottom Line: The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan's survey rose to a nine-month high as year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4%, the lowest since April '21. While improving sharply, year-ahead inflation expectations remained well above...
Jan 12, 2023
Bottom Line: Consumer prices fell at the headline level as energy prices fell in December. As expected, core prices rose 0.3%, led by a surprisingly strong jump of 0.8% in Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), a key measure of shelter prices...
Jan 12, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were unchanged after seasonal adjustments, remaining just above 200k and well below December's highs. However, unadjusted claims rose over 60k. Seasonal adjustments can prove difficult around year-end, and the jump in unadjusted claims bears close watching....
Jan 11, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose just slightly in the first week of 2023 but remained near record lows. Purchase applications edged lower as refis inched higher. Secondary market mortgage spreads tightened sharply in the first week of trading, pushing down...
Jan 6, 2023
Bottom Line: Nonfarm payroll gains in December were slightly stronger than expected, mostly offset by modest downward revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate fell two-tenths following annual revisions by the BLS and jobs gains in the household...
Jan 5, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported stronger than expected job gains in December. Hiring in professional and business services rose sharply following several months of declines, according to the private payroll services provider. There were also upward revisions to previously reported data,...
Jan 4, 2023
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed sharply higher job openings than expected in November. November's reading only showed a decline because of sharp upward revisions to October's tally. While lagged (November data reported with December's national...
Jan 4, 2023
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers stayed below 50, demarcating expansion/contraction, as new orders fell even further. The new order index was close to level historically associated with recessions. Moreover, new orders less inventories, a leading indicator within...
Jan 4, 2023
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell sharply in the final week of the year as mortgage rates edged higher, ending a year of historic upward moves in mortgage rates and record declines in mortgage applications. While the seasonal adjustment factors can...
Jan 3, 2023
Bottom Line: The New Year's U.S. economic data releases started with one of the more lagged and revised series, construction spending -- but the report offered encouraging signs, at least for 4th Quarter growth. Residential spending declined again and remained...
Dec 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week, led by anomalous declines in New York and Georgia. Expect continued volatility as we move from Thanksgiving into the December holiday season. Nonetheless, the trend still appears to be turning slightly higher... ever...
Dec 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales declined in November, coming in below expectations as the housing market took its toll on consumption. Sales at building and garden supply stores fell sharply, as did those at home furnishings stores. Online store sales, the...
Dec 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications jumped 3+% last week as mortgage bankers pushed to get loans processed before the holiday season slows activity. While normally a 3% bump would be significant, the level of applications is so low that it barely...
Dec 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, decelerating for the second consecutive month. Core CPI rose just 0.2%, well below the average pace over the last year. Used car prices fell even more than the major private...
Dec 9, 2022
Bottom Line: The preliminary reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan's survey rebounded modestly in early December, more than expected. While gains were seen across demographics, those with higher incomes and stock market holdings saw the sharpest gains...
Dec 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose slightly more than expected, continuing a sharp deceleration in producer price pressures. However, the readings were stronger than expected and were revised higher for October. Final demand services led the increase, with about 1/3rd of...
Dec 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose over 87k on an unadjusted basis, more than the seasonal factor suggested coming off the Thanksgiving week. Seasonally adjusted claims rose 4k, pushing the trend slightly higher again but still below the pace of increases seen...
Dec 7, 2022
Bottom Line: Applications fell in the first full week following the Thanksgiving holiday, led lower by applications for purchases. The average effective 30-year mortgage rate was down to 6.6%, roughly 50bps below its high of early November. Refinancing applications rose...
Dec 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell over 50k on a non-seasonally adjusted basis last week, even more than the seasonal adjustment model suggested, pushing the reported level of claims back down to 225k. Seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving holiday are difficult as...
Dec 1, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers dropped below 50, demarcating contraction, as new orders fell even further. As we've seen in many surveys, production growth was still modestly positive as manufacturers continued to work off order backlogs. However,...
Nov 30, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed lower openings as the labor market slowly slackened. We should recall that JOLTS is lagged (these are October data, and the November employment report is due Friday) but offers greater...
Nov 30, 2022
Bottom Line: ADP reported weaker-than-expected job gains in November. Leisure and hospitality jobs rose sharply for the second month, but a host of sectors saw losses. Manufacturing jobs fell by 100k, a huge decline for that sector, as ADP's payrolls...
Nov 30, 2022
Bottom Line: The first revision of the 3rd Quarter GDP showed growth was 0.3% stronger than initially reported, now 2.9% versus 2.6% initially reported. This was even slightly higher than the consensus. Consumption growth drove the revision, now 1.7% quarter-on-quarter...
Nov 30, 2022
Bottom Line: Applications fell just slightly more than the MBA's seasonal adjustment factor for the Thanksgiving holiday, always a hard one to adjust for given the extent of Friday mortgage banking activity is hard to predict. While secondary market rates...
Nov 29, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell again in November, hitting a four-month low and suggesting consumers were less optimistic heading into the holiday shopping season. Consumers' confidence in their current situations declined modestly, while the Expectations Index,...
Nov 23, 2022
Bottom Line: The final reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan's survey rebounded modestly after sharp declines in the initial results. Buying conditions for durable goods had markedly improved in September and October but fell sharply in November....
Nov 23, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales rebounded in October, but there were negative revisions to September data. As builders continue to deliver homes developed prior to the sharp move higher in mortgage rates, new home sales have trended lower but...
Nov 23, 2022
Bottom Line: A nearly 3% increase in mortgage applications last week was barely noticeable as the overall level of applications remained near historic lows. The average 30-year mortgage rate available to borrowers fell for the second week, dropping back below...
Nov 23, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims jump 18k to 240k last week, with the non-seasonally adjusted figures even higher. The advance was broad across most states. This report turns the trend higher ahead of some difficult seasonal adjustments in the coming weeks. Claims...
Nov 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales were lower in October as higher mortgage rates continued to hamper affordability. While still up 6.6% year-on-year, median prices fell for the fourth month and were dropping at an annualized rate of nearly 19% over...
Nov 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell less than expected in October. But despite upward revisions to previously reported data, starts remained firmly in a downtrend. Single-family starts hit new post-pandemic lows. Single-family permits authorized but not yet started remained very high...
Nov 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were a touch lower last week, less than expected, as the trend remained modestly to the upside. Claims remain very low, particularly when adjusted for the working-age population, and suggest labor markets remain remarkably tight for the...
Nov 17, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell for the third month in a row in October, as new orders dropped sharply, declining for the sixth month. Shipments still rose slightly as manufacturers worked off backlogs. However, the...
Nov 16, 2022
Bottom Line: Average mortgage rates dropped 30 basis points last week, spurring a modest increase in purchase applications. Only the second significant decline in rates since the 400 basis point march higher started early this year, some potential buyers were...
Nov 16, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales were stronger than expected, with core sales led by gains at online retailers as sales at restaurants and bars also accelerated. Despite the weakness in housing, sales at building and garden supply stores were higher, as...
Nov 16, 2022
Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve's industrial production report for October offered "hard data" to confirm what we have been seeing in the "soft" survey data. Manufacturing activity slowed sharply in the 3rd Quarter and was falling by early in the...
Nov 10, 2022
Bottom Line: After several months of sharply higher prices for medical care services, prices in this critical segment of core CPI fell, easing core price pressures even more than expected in October. The core CPI was up 0.3%, two-tenths less...
Nov 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Purchase applications inched higher last week, offering hints of stabilization after declining sharply since February. Average mortgage rates were higher but still bouncing around 7.25%, where they have been for nearly a month. Applications for refinancing continued to...
Nov 4, 2022
Bottom Line: Job gains were stronger than expected in October, and there were net upward revisions to previously reported data. At 261k, the gains were robust but still consistent with a modest deceleration in trend relative to the six- and...
Nov 2, 2022
Bottom Line: ADP reported stronger-than-expected job growth in October as leisure and hospitality hiring rebounded sharply. However, outside of that large segment, most sectors saw job losses. Job growth was still robust in trade, transportation and utilities, but the pace...
Nov 1, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers held just above 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction. Production growth remained positive, accelerating just a touch, while new orders contracted at a slower pace in October. Overall, the report...
Nov 1, 2022
The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed a sharp increase in openings in September, countering expectations for declines. Moreover, there were upward revisions to the prior tally of job openings. The healthcare sector led the jump in openings, as...
Nov 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Construction spending unexpectedly rose in September, and there were positive revisions to data from earlier in the quarter. A sharp increase in construction related to manufacturing industries drove the gains. Despite the cyclical slowdown in manufacturing, industries invested...
Oct 28, 2022
Bottom Line: The final October reading of the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed sentiment rose modestly as consumers' assessments of their current situations improved slightly. Moreover, their year-ahead inflation expectations, which remain high at 5%, eased slightly in...
Oct 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were below expectations again last week as the labor market remained tight even as economic growth indicators continued to wane. It appears that employers are holding onto employees even as activity slows, likely fearing they won't be...
Oct 27, 2022
Bottom Line: The advance reading of 3rd Quarter GDP was slightly higher than the consensus but below the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. At 2.4% annualized, the reading marked a solid rebound from the 1st Half. Business fixed investment drove the...
Oct 26, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales fell nearly 11% in September. While better than expected, there were negative revisions to the surprisingly strong August reading. The trend in new home sales was volatile but still trending lower. Additionally, inventories were...
Oct 25, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected in October after hitting its highest level since April last month. Consumers' confidence in their current situations declined sharply, while the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook...
Oct 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales were slower in September, mostly as expected and trending steadily lower. Median home prices fell as activity slowed. While still up 8.4% year-on-year, median prices were down over 3.5% from July until September. Despite the...
Oct 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week, alleviating concerns, for now, of a second wave higher, as we had seen in the summer. Claims fell nearly 12k last week, dropping back to just 214k, a level that suggests historically tight...
Oct 20, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell for the second month in a row in October, as new orders declined for the fifth month. Shipments still rose slightly as manufacturers worked off backlogs. However, the report continued...
Oct 19, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell more than expected in September, resuming the downtrend after a modest rebound in August. Single-family starts fell below 900k annualized units for the first time since the pandemic, hitting levels seen when activity slowed in...
Oct 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Industrial production rose more than expected in August, offering "hard data" to confirm "soft" survey data that had suggested production held up even as new orders fell in the 3rd Quarter. Manufacturers were able to continue to boost...
Oct 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales were flat at the headline level in September due to lower gasoline prices, but core sales rose as expected. Additionally, there were modest upward revisions to August data. At the headline level, autos and parts remained...
Oct 14, 2022
Bottom Line: The preliminary October reading of the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed sentiment rose due to improved assessments of current conditions. Year-ahead inflation expectations, which had been trending steadily lower and were expected to fall to 4.6%...
Oct 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose for the second week, starting the 4th Quarter with the trend edging just slightly higher but still below levels seen in July and historically quite low. Claims headed higher from March to July, but that trend...
Oct 13, 2022
Bottom Line: CPI rose even more than expected in September. The core CPI was up 0.6%, two-tenths more than expected, as Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), a key measure of shelter prices and nearly a third of core CPI, jumped 0.8%....
Oct 12, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates averaged 7.09% in the first week of the 4th Quarter, pushing mortgage applications to a record low. Applications for purchases remained just a touch above 2015's lows, but refis slowed to another historic low. Secondary mortgage...
Oct 12, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose slightly more than expected in September due to higher food and energy prices, but the core final demand continued to moderate as expected. Moreover, the BLS revised August prices a touch lower. Prices of transportation...
Oct 6, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose significantly for the first time since July as the 3rd Quarter came to a close. And while the increase was notable, it wasn't enough to change the trend yet. Claims still remain historically low. Moreover, seasonal...
Oct 5, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates averaged over 7% in the final week of September, nearly bringing mortgage applications to a complete halt. The Mortgage Bankers Association's application index was down over 14%. The Refi Index hit a new record low, while...
Oct 5, 2022
Bottom Line: ADP reported continued job gains in September, mostly as expected, and the payroll company revised August's gains higher. Looking through the normal monthly volatile and some difficult seasonal adjustments in August and September, we see a slower trend...
Oct 5, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of services sector purchasing managers held its gains in September, suggesting continued moderate growth in service industries, after hitting a two-year low in June. New order growth remained robust. That said, anecdotal reports were a...
Oct 4, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed a sharp decline in openings in August. While lagged relative to other labor market indicators, the JOLTS report has been regularly cited by Fed Chair Jay Powell as a source...
Oct 4, 2022
Bottom Line: The August Factory Orders report showed flat activity at the headline level and slight growth in core components as this "hard data" report confirmed what the "soft data" (purchasing manager surveys) have been telling us for months. Nondefense...
Oct 3, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers showed slightly positive growth as production rose. But new orders contracted sharply as inventories rose, suggesting weakness in the future. While supply shortages remain an issue for some sectors, many reported working...
Oct 3, 2022
Bottom Line: Construction spending fell again in August and was revised even lower for July as residential spending slowed sharply. There were positive revisions to the June data, mostly due to stronger non-residential construction, as already reflected in GDP reports. ...
Sep 30, 2022
Bottom Line: The final reading of the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed sentiment slipped modestly as concerns about future business conditions outweighed more positive assessments of the current conditions. Current assessments were more positive, mostly on the heels...
Sep 29, 2022
Bottom Line: The final reading of 2nd Quarter GDP was little changed from its second estimate of a decline of -0.6% annualized. As expected, residential investment was revised lower as housing-related activity continued to slow over the quarter. However, consumption...
Sep 29, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell again last week, rapidly approaching the lowest levels seen early this year. Overall, claims remain historically low, and are headed lower again after trending higher from May through July. Claims suggest the labor market remains tight...
Sep 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates hit 6.85% for the average 30-year fixed-rate last week and were over 7% in many cases this week as secondary market mortgage yields rose even more than Treasuries. Pending home sales in August confirmed what was...
Sep 27, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales rebounded sharply in August, and there were upward revisions to the sharp declines in July. While the surprise was notable, these August data do little to change the trend, which is firmly lower. Moreover,...
Sep 27, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded further in September, hitting its highest level since April. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, led the gains. Declines in gasoline prices...
Sep 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales were nearly unchanged in August, beating expectations for a moderate decline. But the trend remained to the downside with median prices edging lower. Inventory levels remained historically lean but were slowly trending higher with months'...
Sep 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose slightly last week because the previous week was revised lower. Overall, claims remain historically low, and the modest uptrend that started early in May has lost all its momentum. If anything, the trend in claims is...
Sep 21, 2022
The FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time to a new rate range of 3.00%-3.25%, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis. The FOMC reiterated that “ongoing increases in the target...
Sep 16, 2022
Bottom Line: After hitting record lows in June, consumer sentiment continued to rebound, with the preliminary reading for September coming in just below expectations. Consumers' expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.6%, the lowest reading since last September, and their...
Sep 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts rose more than expected in August, but there were negative revisions to previously reported months, and permits slipped further. Moreover, the August rebound was driven by multi-family, which has remained volatile but more resilient than single-family...
Sep 15, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's and the New York Fed's surveys of manufacturing activity showed a contraction in September. While The Empire survey was better than expected, Philly disappointed expectations. While new orders rose slightly in the Empire survey, both...
Sep 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose slightly more than expected at the headline level, but core sales were lower than expected and saw downward revisions. After Amazon Prime Day boosted July sales, nonstore sales, the largest core category, fell 0.7% and...
Sep 15, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims continued to move lower throughout August and into September. While there were some distortions due to the Labor Day holiday, the trend is to the downside again. All this suggests the labor...
Sep 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage rates continued their ascent, averaging 6.23% last week with the secondary market even higher through Tuesday of this week. As Treasury yields moved higher mortgage spreads widened, further exacerbating the move in mortgage yields. The refi index...
Sep 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices fell in August, slightly more than expected, amid lower energy prices. Final demand less food and energy rose slightly more than expected but was lower on a year-over-year basis and trending in the right direction, up...
Sep 13, 2022
Bottom Line: CPI rose slightly in August, countering expectations for a decline due to lower gasoline prices, as core CPI jumped sharply, up 0.6% on the month. Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), a key measure of shelter prices and nearly a...
Sep 8, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims continued to move lower through the week leading up to Labor Day weekend. Moreover, there were negative revisions to the prior week's tally. The trend in claims is now mixed to lower...
Sep 2, 2022
Bottom Line: The July Factory Orders report surprised to the downside as the orders fell across most segments. While lagged relative to other data, this "hard" data confirms what we've seen in "soft" survey data, where order growth started to...
Sep 2, 2022
Bottom Line: Job gains were moderately stronger than expected in August, up 315k, but negative revisions to previously reported subtracted over 100k jobs from the overall tally. The unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.7% as the household survey showed an...
Sep 1, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims moved steadily lower throughout August, closing the final full week of the month down more than expected. Initial jobless claims hit a cyclical nadir in March, claims trended higher through July but...
Sep 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Construction spending fell again in July, led by declines in residential projects after a historic move higher in mortgage rates. Nonresidential construction finally started to recover this year and was accelerating modestly by July but remained well below...
Sep 1, 2022
Bottom Line: The final reading of productivity and costs for the 2nd Quarter showed the second consecutive Quarter of productivity declines was a bit less negative than previously reported. Output declines were modestly less than previously reported, with compensation costs...
Sep 1, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers still showed modestly positive growth as production rose and new order growth rebounded. Prices paid rose at the slowest pace since the early days of the pandemic. The difference between new orders...
Aug 31, 2022
Bottom Line: As the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage pushed back over 6% last week, applications for purchases and refinancings fell sharply. The refi index hit a new 15+ year low, while the purchased index hit levels last seen in 2016....
Aug 30, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded sharply in August, following other confidence indicators as prices at the gas pump moved lower. This survey has tended to lag the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, and July and...
Aug 30, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey revealed more job openings than expected but hiring continued to decline, and quits were lower. The JOLTS report is lagged relative to other labor market indicators but provides greater granularity than...
Aug 25, 2022
Bottom Line: The second reading of 2nd Quarter GDP showed a smaller contraction than first estimated as consumption growth proved sharply higher. Consumption grew 1.5% annualized in the Quarter compared to 1.0% in the first estimate, suggesting consumer spending ended...
Aug 25, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved a touch lower for the third consecutive week. After hitting a cyclical nadir in March, claims had been steadily trending higher, suggesting the labor market was easing. But since early August, claims have been falling modestly....
Aug 24, 2022
Bottom Line: After declining for much of July and through the first half of August, mortgage rates jumped higher last week, sending mortgage applications lower again. Already historically depressed with most existing mortgage borrowers holding mortgages below 4%, the refinance...
Aug 23, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales plunged in July as the impact of higher mortgage rates took its toll on sales of new homes, especially lower-priced, more affordable ones. Sales were back to levels not seen since 2016, and the...
Aug 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved a touch lower for the second week, coming in below expectations. Still, the medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a concern and bears close watching going...
Aug 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell even more than expected in July, as the median transaction price declined over 2% on the month. In the wake of higher mortgage rates, home sales proved initially resilient but have fallen exceptionally quickly...
Aug 18, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity rose, coming in better than expected and much better than the New York Fed's survey. Shipments were stronger as manufacturers worked off backlogs. However, the report continued to suggest weakness going...
Aug 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose, a touch more than expected at the core level in July. While June sales were revised about two-tenths lower, May sales were revised higher by nearly half of a percent. Despite historic price inflation, real...
Aug 16, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell slightly more than expected in July, as both single- and multi-family activity slowed. There were slight upward revisions to June data, but not nearly enough to offset the downside surprise in July. Single-family starts continued...
Aug 16, 2022
Bottom Line: Industrial production rose slightly more than expected in July, but there were negative revisions to prior data leaving the trend decelerating. Looking through revisions and volatility, industrial production growth annualized at just 2% in the three months ended...
Aug 12, 2022
Bottom Line: After hitting record lows in June, consumer sentiment continued to rebound, according to the preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan survey. Led by future expectations, the index measuring how consumers feel about their prospects for the...
Aug 11, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices fell in July, led by lower energy prices. But core prices rose less than expected too. The biggest driver of increases at the core level remained margins in the trade services sectors. Outside of that, though,...
Aug 11, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved a touch lower, and there were modest downward revisions to prior weeks' data. Still, the medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a big concern and bears...
Aug 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose only slightly to start August, with applications for refinancing edging up but purchase applications dropping again. After secondary market yields dropped in mid-July, it took several weeks for mortgage bankers to comfortably pass along lower...
Aug 10, 2022
Bottom Line: CPI was flat in July as energy prices tumbled, and even the core reading was lower than expected at just 0.3%, easing the trend rate of core inflation back below 4%. At the core level, used car prices...
Aug 9, 2022
Bottom Line: The preliminary reading of productivity and costs for the 2nd Quarter showed a second consecutive quarter of sharp productivity declines as output fell and hours worked increased, resulting in unit labor costs rising 10+%. As we saw in...
Aug 5, 2022
Bottom Line: Job gains were sharply stronger than expected in July, adding 528k jobs with stronger average hourly earnings. The household employment report (used to calculate the unemployment rate) showed gains of 179k, notably lower than the establishment survey amid...
Aug 4, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher again last week, mostly as expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the ninth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in...
Aug 3, 2022
Bottom Line: The June Factory Orders report surprised to the upside with positive revisions as the volatile automobile sector continued to rebound after supply-induced slowdowns. This June report offers the potential for upward revisions to the 2nd Quarter GDP tally....
Aug 3, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose slightly but remained near record lows even as effective mortgage rates fell to 5.62% after eclipsing 6% earlier in the month. Mortgage bankers were finally able to pass along some of the decline in secondary...
Aug 2, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey revealed fewer job openings and hires than expected in June. While still near record levels, openings reveal some easing of tight labor markets. The JOLTS report is lagged relative to other...
Aug 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Construction spending fell sharply, countering expectations for slight gains in June. Residential construction, which has been the sole driver of construction gains since the pandemic, fell for the first time since 2020. The sharp increase in mortgage rates...
Aug 1, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers still showed modestly positive growth as production held up. But new orders contracted, and inventories continued to build. The difference between new orders and inventories, often a more forward-looking indicator, fell sharply,...
Jul 29, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment rebounded from record lows, according to the final July reading of the University of Michigan survey, proving a touch better than expected and better than the preliminary reading. Nonetheless, consumer sentiment remains near historic lows. Moreover,...
Jul 28, 2022
Bottom Line: The advance reading of 2nd Quarter GDP showed a contraction of -0.9% after 1st Quarter's contraction of -1.6%. While there has been even higher than usual volatility in categories like inventories and trade (inventories knocked 2 points off...
Jul 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher again last week, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the eighth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend...
Jul 27, 2022
In a unanimous decision, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75% in what are now back-to-back 75bps rate hikes. Aside from last month's 75bps hike, November 1994 was the last time a hike of this size occurred. That...
Jul 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell further last week, with the Mortgage Banker's Association's index hitting a new cycle low. While secondary market spreads to Treasuries have held about 10-15bps tighter since early August, mortgage bankers have yet to pass along...
Jul 26, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell further in July, coming in below expectations with negative revisions to previously reported data. This survey had been showing better consumer attitudes than the University of Michigan survey but started declining...
Jul 26, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales were sharply lower in June, even more than expected, and there were negative revisions to the gains seen in May, as well as April and March data. Sales were nearly 20% below year-ago levels...
Jul 21, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell sharply, dashing hopes that last month's deceleration was just normal volatility. Nearly every major subcomponent showed slowing activity, with the index in negative territory when recalculated on an ISM-weighted basis....
Jul 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, even more than expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the seventh consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in...
Jul 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell again last week, with the Mortgage Banker's Association's index hitting a new low. The purchase index hit a new low for this cycle but remained above levels seen in 2015, while the refinance index continued...
Jul 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell even more than expected in June, closing a Quarter of three straight monthly declines. While the housing activity slowdown was expected given the Fed rate hikes priced into markets, home sales proved initially resilient...
Jul 19, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell slightly more than expected in June, but there were positive revisions to May data. Single-family starts declined sharply and were trending towards levels seen before the pandemic and after the tax changes in 2018. Multi-family...
Jul 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment rebounded from record lows, according to the preliminary July reading of the University of Michigan survey. Consumers' inflation expectations for the year-ahead eased slightly, down a tenth to 5.2%, but their 5-year ahead expectations fell sharply,...
Jul 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose more than expected in June and there were modest upward revisions to the previous data. Gasoline station sales led the headline gains with prices notably higher at the pump. Auto sales were also solid, rebounding...
Jul 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, making marginal new highs for the year, despite the 4th of July holiday as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. This was the sixth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are...
Jul 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose sharply again in June, led by goods for the sixth consecutive month, as energy prices rose sharply. Headline PPI was nearly 11.2% year-over-year, annualizing at 10% over the last three months. But "core", final demand...
Jul 13, 2022
Bottom Line: CPI rose sharply more than expected in June as higher energy prices pushed up prices even more than expected, with year-on-year readings coming in over 9%. Core CPI rose more than expected, up 0.7% on the month, with...
Jul 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell last week as applications for purchases fell, even after adjusting for the holiday-shortened week, resuming a downtrend after several weeks of a modest rebound. Current coupon yields jumped last week, but primary mortgage rates, which...
Jul 5, 2022
Bottom Line: The May Factory Orders report was stronger than expected with positive revisions. While recent survey data suggest that manufacturing growth slowed sharply since May, this report suggests the sector was still a robust contributor to growth in the...
Jul 6, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks and remain firmly in a downtrend as mortgage rates remain historically high, despite the recent pullback. Current coupon yields in the secondary market were down over 65bps from...
Jul 6, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey is lagged relative to other labor market indicators but provides greater granularity than most. The May report showed a decline in openings, but previous months were revised even higher. Even as...
Jul 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Job gains were somewhat stronger than expected, even after accounting for modest negative revisions to prior data. Hourly earnings, perhaps the most critical metric for Fed policy at this point, rose as expected with modestly decelerating gains on...
Jul 7, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, making marginal new highs for the year as the trend continued to creep slowly higher. This was the fifth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming...
Jul 1, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers fell more than consensus expectations but was in line with our forecasts given weak regional surveys since mid-month. June saw new orders contract slightly for the first time since the pandemic. Inventories...
Jun 30, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell inched higher, pushing above 230k with upward revisions to previously reported weeks. This was the fourth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. While historically still low,...
Jun 29, 2022
Bottom Line: The final reading of 1st Quarter GDP showed a slightly larger decline in economic activity than previously reported. Key categories like consumption and residential fixed investment were revised notably lower as late data was tallied, and the Quarter...
Jun 29, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose for the third week, despite historically high mortgage rates. The slight increase was driven by applications for refinancing, which remain historically very depressed, with the vast majority of mortgage borrowers enjoying rates some 250+...
Jun 28, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in June, coming in below expectations with negative revisions to previously reported data. This survey had been showing better consumer attitudes than the University of Michigan survey, but now it...
Jun 24, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment plunged in early June and remained low throughout the month, according to the final reading of the University of Michigan survey. The survey index fell to a record low as consumers across all incomes, ages, and...
Jun 24, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales surprised sharply higher in May, despite the historic increase in mortgage rates. Even with upward revisions to prior data, the trend remains downward. We should remember that new home sales account for a much...
Jun 23, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell less than expected last week with the medium-term averages in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. This was the third week over 220k. While historically still low, the shift in trend is a big concern...
Jun 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose last week, mostly catch-up after a holiday-shortened the prior week. While notable given the record moves in mortgage rates last week, the uptick still barely shows up on a trend basis. Applications for refinancing sit...
Jun 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell in May, as expected, dropping nearly 200k annualized units, continuing a trend amid sharply higher mortgage rates. While historically still low, inventories rose again and stood at 2.6 months of sales, up from 1.6...
Jun 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Overall, US industrial production remains robust. The critical sectors continued to see accelerating growth. But given the weakness in (sometimes more timely) survey data, we are looking for cracks -- and there were certainly hints of those forming...
Jun 16, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell more than expected in June. This follows a sharp decline in May and a decline in the neighboring Empire manufacturing survey reported earlier this week. The index fell into negative...
Jun 16, 2022
Bottom Line: While there have been seasonal adjustments that have skewed week-to-week comparisons, the trend in jobless claims is now moving higher again. Claims turned higher in April but were lingering in the 180-210k range for several weeks. Now, though,...
Jun 16, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell even more than expected in May as mortgage rates rose sharply. While there were upward revisions, this report showed a sudden slowdown in activity as builders appear to have finally reacted to higher mortgage rates....
Jun 15, 2022
The FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 75bps to a new target range of 1.50%-1.75%. This is the first 75bps increase since 1994. The Fed plans to continue to reduce its balance sheet by $47.5 billion a month, as...
Jun 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose less than expected in May and there were negative revisions to April sales. Auto sales slumped amid higher prices and shortages of new car inventories. Gasoline station sales rose sharply, up nearly 4%, with higher...
Jun 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications rose last week, mostly catch-up after a holiday-shortened the prior week. While notable given the record moves in mortgage rates last week, the uptick still barely shows up on a trend basis. Applications for refinancing sit...
Jun 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose sharply again in May, led by final demand goods for the fifth consecutive month, as energy prices rose sharply. Truck transportation prices led a more modest increase at the core level, where PPI excluding energy...
Jun 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in June, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary survey reading. The share of consumers citing inflation as the biggest reason for their negative outlooks was only this high once before,...
Jun 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Core CPI rose slightly more than expected in May as headline price pressures rose with higher energy prices. Year-on-year comparisons for core and headline readings continue to calibrate off very high readings a year ago, suggesting we should...
Jun 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims jumped last week due to seasonal adjustments around the Memorial Day holiday. Unadjusted claims were nearly unchanged. Looking through the uptick in volatility in the last few weeks, the four- and 13-week averages have started to turn...
Jun 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell further in the first few days of June as purchase applications dropped with mortgage rates holding above 4.5% on 5/1 ARMS (a 30-year amortizing mortgage with a 5-year fixed-rate and an adjustable rate thereafter) and...
Jun 7, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer credit rose more than expected again in April. While there were negative revisions to earlier data, taking about $10B off the previously reported increases for the 1st Quarter, the trend continued to accelerate higher. Revolving credit growth...
Jun 3, 2022
Bottom Line: Job gains in April were somewhat stronger than expected with solid hiring across most sectors, wages modestly higher and the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%. Leisure and hospitality jobs led the gains again with restaurants and hotels hiring....
Jun 3, 2022
Bottom Line: Activity in the service industry decelerated slightly more than expected again in May, but the overall level of the survey's index suggested activity remained historically solid. After slipping for several months, the index of new orders rose, and...
Jun 2, 2022
Bottom Line: ADP reported slower job gains than expected in May. And April gains were revised modestly lower. Construction jobs were notably lower as housing activity slowed. And the gains in the leisure and hospitality sector slowed. On a trend...
Jun 2, 2022
Bottom Line: The April Factory Orders report confirmed continued deceleration but historically still robust growth. Gains from March were revised lower as April also printed below expectations. April's gains were still modestly above the 1st Quarter levels, suggesting equipment spending...
Jun 1, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey confirmed tight labor market conditions. Openings fell in April but March's record reading was revised even higher. While the JOLTS report is lagged relative to other labor market indicators, the report...
Jun 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell in the week ended May 27th as purchase applications were modestly lower and refis fell sharply, despite the first significant decline in rates in several months. Mortgage rates eased lower for the second week, back...
Jun 1, 2022
Bottom Line: ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers showed continued solid gains in May, with the index coming in above April's levels, led by accelerating new orders and production. Regional surveys showed significant volatility in May as many industries struggled...
May 31, 2022
Bottom Line: The Conference Board's April Consumer Confidence Index was slightly lower in May after upward revisions to April data. While the level of this survey index relative to the pandemic lows remained better than the University of Michigan Consumer...
May 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment was revised to show an even larger drop in May than the survey data suggested earlier in the month. Consumers expressed negative views on buying conditions for homes and durable goods, mostly due to their inflation...
May 25, 2022
Bottom Line: Mortgage applications fell slightly in the week ended May 20th as purchase applications edged up just a touch while refinancing applications fell. Mortgage rates fell last week, down to about 5 5/8% for the average borrower, off the...
May 24, 2022
Bottom Line: New home sales plunged in April as higher mortgage rates slowed activity even more than expected. While other reports showed activity held up relatively well in April, new home sales are based on contract signings rather than...
May 19, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were higher for a third week in a row last week, but remained within the 180 - 220k range, where we expect this tight labor market should remain. That said, we are watching the recent increase closely,...
May 19, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell more than expected in May, hitting its lowest level in two years. The details, though, were much better than the headline. The decline was led by a sharp drop in...
May 19, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales fell a touch more than expected in April as mortgage rates rose and home prices continued to edge higher. While historically still low, inventories rose again and stood at 2.2 months of sales. Average and...
May 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Housing starts fell only slightly in April, even as mortgage rates continued to rise. That said, single-family housing starts fell more than the headline suggested as multi-family starts rose for the second month in a row, hitting new...
May 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Purchase applications, which had held up remarkably well given the upward move in mortgage rates, fell sharply last week, hitting the lowest level since the pandemic. Refinancing fell again last week and remains near record lows with most...
May 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Industrial production rose even more than expected in April as the auto industry led a volatile but robust reacceleration continued to take shape. Motor vehicle and part production were up 36+% over the three months ended in April,...
May 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Retail sales rose modestly more than expected in April, and there were upward revisions to prior data. At the headline level, gasoline station sales were lower after the slight dip in gasoline prices in April, but automotive sales...
May 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Consumer sentiment fell sharply in the preliminary May reading from the University of Michigan survey. With equity market declines garnering headlines, consumers' assessments of the current financial situation relative to a year ago were at their lowest reading...
May 12, 2022
Bottom Line: Producer prices rose slightly less than expected in April but were revised sharply higher for March. Core producer price gains were notably slower in April, but gains for March were revised up from +0.972 to +1.16, and February's...
May 12, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were higher for a second week in a row last week, but remained within the 180 - 220k range, where we expect this tight labor market should remain for many months. Moreover, unadjusted claims were lower again...
May 11, 2022
Bottom Line: The budget deficit saw a surplus of $308 billion, substantially more than expected, as tax payments in April set a monthly record. With this surprisingly strong revenue boost, the budget deficit for the fiscal year ending in September...
May 11, 2022
Bottom Line: Purchase applications edged higher for a second week in a row, even as the effective mortgage rate (adjusted for points paid) hit nearly 5 3/4%. While the trend in purchase applications is still to the downside, the level...
May 11, 2022
Bottom Line: Core CPI rose more than expected in April even as headline price pressures eased with slightly lower energy prices. Year-on-year comparisons for core and headline readings now calibrate off very high readings a year ago, suggesting we should...
May 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Job gains in April were even better than expected, matching March's gains, which were revised only slightly to 428k. Gains were broad-based, with hiring rebounding notably in the warehousing and transportation-related sectors. Manufacturing job gains were also robust....
May 2, 2022
Bottom Line: Construction spending rose less than expected in March, finishing a quarter of sharply rising interest rates with continued modest gains. Always lagged and prone to heavy revisions, these data confirm strong construction activity in late '21 and into...
May 3, 2022
Bottom Line: The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey confirmed tight labor market conditions. In March, openings rose sharply, hitting a new record with prior data revised to show even more openings. While the JOLTS report is lagged relative to...
May 3, 2022
Bottom Line: The March Factory Orders report confirmed continued strong growth in activity amid continued volatility due to supply chain disruptions. After positive revisions to February data, orders were up in 22 of the previous 23 months. Transportation equipment remained...
May 4, 2022
Bottom Line: Applications for purchases rebounded slightly as mortgage rates stabilized. While the trend in purchase applications remains firmly to the downside, the level of applications relative to periods of similarly elevated mortgage rates remains impressive. Refinancing, of course, remains...
May 4, 2022
Bottom Line: ADP reported slower job gains than expected in April of 247k, well below the consensus expectation of 383k. That said, there there were positive revisions to prior data, with February revised up from +486 to +601 and March...
May 4, 2022
Bottom Line: Activity in the service industry decelerated more than expected in April, but the overall level of the survey's index suggested activity remained historically robust. That said, new order growth decelerated and was trending lower. Prices paid rose further,...
May 4, 2022
The FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% for the first time since 2000, and policy makers have not raised the benchmark in successive meetings since 2006. This comes as no surprise to the markets since Chairman Powell put...
May 5, 2022
Bottom Line: The preliminary reading of productivity and costs for the 1st Quarter showed a sharp drop in productivity as output fell but hours worked, and wages continue to increase. Output fell 2.4%, while hours worked increased 5.5%. 1st Quarter...
May 5, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were higher last week, bouncing off the low end of what has been a new equilibrium in the 180 - 220k range. That said, much of the increase was due to seasonal factors, as the actual unadjusted...