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Consumer Confidence: Surprise Decline

October 25, 2022
Bottom Line:  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected in October after hitting its highest level since April last month. Consumers' confidence in their current situations declined sharply, while the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, remained near historic lows. Renewed concerns about inflation were top of mind for most consumers surveyed, and it appears those concerns could impact consumers' holiday shopping plans. Overall, U.S. consumers remain resilient with fortified balance sheets and continued solid labor market conditions, but their willingness to spend on non-essential items remains lower as they adjust to stubborn inflation and continued interest rate increases.
Consumer Confidence
FELL by 5.3 points in October to 102.5, compared with market expectations for a decline to 105.9. The index is now 8.2% BELOW its year-ago level.
Present Situation Index FELL by 11.3 points to 138.9. The index is 4.5% BELOW its year-ago level.

The Expectations Index
FELL by 1.4 points to 78.1.  The index is 12.2% BELOW its year-ago level.

The labor differential,
the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “plentiful” from the percentage who said jobs are “hard to get” , moved lower by 5.6 points to 32.5.
Article by Contingent Macro