The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Jobless Claims: Jump Due to Seasonals
June 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims jumped last week due to seasonal adjustments around the Memorial Day holiday. Unadjusted claims were nearly unchanged. Looking through the uptick in volatility in the last few weeks, the four- and 13-week averages have started to turn higher, something we are watching closely. Overall, though, the level of claims remains historically low and is consistent with a strong labor market. We expect the new equilibrium level of claims to be in the 180-220k range. Our Nowcast Index for claims suggests claims have resumed declines this week.Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 27k in the week ended June 4th to 229k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 215k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 191.76923k but 191k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 28th of May were revised up from +200k to +202k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims were nearly unchanged, 1.008k.Continuing Claims were unchanged in the week ended May 28th at 1.306M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.3175M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.419538M and 2.116M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 21st of May were revised down from +1.309M to +1.306M.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors