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Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs

June 16, 2022
Bottom Line: While there have been seasonal adjustments that have skewed week-to-week comparisons, the trend in jobless claims is now moving higher again. Claims turned higher in April but were lingering in the 180-210k range for several weeks. Now, though, we've seen a second week over 220k. While historically still low, the shift in trend is a big concern. The 4-week average is now nearly 219k, well above the 13-week average of 196k.
Initial Jobless Claims FELL 3k in the week ended June 11th to 229k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 218.5k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 196k but 200k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 4th of Jun were revised up from +229k to +232k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 17.695k.
Continuing Claims were nearly unchanged in the week ended June 4th,  3k to 1.312M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.3175M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.398077M and 2.04M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 28th of May were revised up from +1.306M to +1.309M.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors