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Existing Home Sales: Lower, As Expected

October 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Existing home sales were slower in September, mostly as expected and trending steadily lower. Median home prices fell as activity slowed. While still up 8.4% year-on-year, median prices were down over 3.5% from July until September. Despite the decline in sales, the months' supply (sales/inventory) has remained historically low as housing turnover has slowed, with so many homeowners carrying mortgages 300+ basis points below today's market rates. Overall, home sales are trending lower after a record move in mortgage rates, and more timely data like mortgage application volume suggests the declines should continue well into 2023.
Existing Home Sales FELL by 1.5% in September to 4.71 million, compared with market expectations for a decline to 4.70 million. Home re-sales are now 23.8% BELOW their year-ago level.
The Inventory of Homes Available for Sale
FELL by 2.3% to 1,250k and is now 0.8% BELOW  their year-ago level.
Home Prices
ROSE compared to their year-ago levels. Median home prices are 8.4% ABOVE their year-ago levels.
Article by Contingent Macro