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International Trade: Balance Turns Lower
November 3, 2022
Bottom Line: The US trade deficit grew more negative for the first time in six months as imports increased moderately and exports slipped. Apple's new iPhone boosted consumer goods imports in September as pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, and civilian aircraft also added to imports. Export declines were led by ags, as crude oil exports also declined. All that said, the trend remains towards modestly lower trade deficits, and there were positive revisions to previously reported data. Slower US consumer demand and more efficient supply chains should aid the medium-trend as we slowly assess if the anecdotal evidence of long-term "re-onshoring" shows in the data. Net trade was a moderate positive for GDP, and these data offer the potential for a slight downward revision to that figure, but it should remain significantly positive. So far, indications for the 4th Quarter suggest trade should have relatively little impact.The International Trade Deficit WIDENED by $7.6 billion to $73.3 billion in September, compared with market expectations for a decline to a $72.2 billion deficit.Exports FELL by 1.1% to $258.0 billion after an increase of 0.5% in the prior month. The declines in industrial supplies and materials and food, feed, and beverages were partially offset by increases in capital goods and motor vehicles and parts. Export growth is now 21.9% ABOVE their year-ago level.Imports ROSE 1.475% to $331.3 billion after a decline of 1.1% in the prior month. The declines in industrial supplies and materials and food, feed, and beverages were more offset by increases in capital goods and consumer goods. Imports are now 14.3% ABOVE their year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro