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Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound

September 16, 2022
Bottom Line:  After hitting record lows in June, consumer sentiment continued to rebound, with the preliminary reading for September coming in just below expectations. Consumers' expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.6%, the lowest reading since last September, and their 5-year inflation outlook fell to 2.8%, below the 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021. That said, uncertainty about inflation remained extremely high. Overall, the modest declines in gasoline prices have eased consumers' fears about inflation just slightly and buoyed their outlooks, but their sentiment remains historically low.
Consumer Sentiment ROSE by 1.3 points in early September to 59.5%, compared with market expectations for an increase to 60.0%.  Despite this month's slight increase, sentiment is now 18.3% BELOW its year-ago level.

Current Conditions
ROSE by 0.3 points to 58.9%. This is 26.5% BELOW their year-ago level.
Consumer Expectations ROSE by 1.9 points to 59.9%.  Despite this month's slight increase, expectations are 12.0% BELOW its year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro