Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Download Attachment

ADP: Sharp Rebound in Hiring As Claims Fall

January 5, 2023
Bottom Line:   ADP reported stronger  than expected job gains in December. Hiring in professional and business services rose sharply following several months of declines, according to the private payroll services provider. There were also upward revisions to previously reported data, most notably in manufacturing jobs, where declines were much less than previously reported. Leisure and hospitality job growth slowed but remained the largest source of gains as trade, transportation and utilities saw declines for the second month. Overall, ADP's report offers upside risk for Friday's non-farm payroll report. Moreover, the report confirms that labor markets remain stubbornly tight.
Separately, jobless claims in the final week of 2022 fell sharply, dropping over 20k to 204k on a seasonally adjusted basis. While seasonal adjustments are difficult in the week between Christmas and New Years, this bears close watching in the first few weeks of the new year. Claims had been in a modest uptrend again since October, but the data in the last few weeks of the year brought a further rise into question.
Article by Contingent Macro