Jobless Claims: Hold Near Cycle Highs

Bottom Line:  Claims were nearly steady on a seasonally adjusted basis last week but rose nearly 28k on an unadjusted basis. Sitting near cycle highs, the level of claims bears close watching in the coming weeks. The most recent spike subsided after one state cleaned up fraudulent claims. While there have been reports of possible fraud in some states (Ohio still looks unusually high), the increase in claims has been broad across states in the last two weeks. Texas led the increase on an unadjusted basis last week, with statistically significant gains in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Overall, claims are trending slowly higher, but the pace might be accelerating.

Initial Jobless Claims were unchanged in the week ended June 10th at 262k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 246.75k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 240.07692k and 45k ABOVE the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 28.763k.

Continuing Claims ROSE 20k in the week ended June 3rd to 1.775M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.77825M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.805538M but 416k ABOVE the year-ago level.