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Jobless Claims: Further Declines To End August

September 1, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims moved steadily lower throughout August, closing the final full week of the month down more than expected. Initial jobless claims hit a cyclical nadir in March, claims trended higher through July but have since turned more mixed. These trends suggest the red hot labor market has cooled only modestly with conditions still quite robust.
Our Nowcast model confirmed the general trends but has continued to run below the reported level of claims. The model suggests claims continued to move modestly lower again this week.
Initial Jobless Claims FELL 5k in the week ended August 27th to 232k, BELOW the 4-week average of 241.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 239.92308k and 149k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 20th of Aug were revised down from +243k to +237k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims were nearly unchanged at 2.492k.
Continuing Claims ROSE 26k in the week ended August 20th to 1.438M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.4285M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.374M but 1.334M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 13th of Aug were revised down from +1.415M to +1.412M.
Article by Contingent Macro