The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher
July 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher again last week, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the eighth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a big concern and bears close watching going forward. The red-hot labor market is finally cooling. Our Nowcast model is now running only a bit below the reported level of claims, confirming the trend has also turned higher, despite some anomalies in the seasonal adjustments of the reported data.Initial Jobless Claims FELL 5k in the week ended July 23rd to 256k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 249.25k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 227.23077k but 155k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 16th of Jul were revised up from +251k to +261k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL 42.417k.Continuing Claims FELL 25k in the week ended July 16th to 1.359M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.362M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.339615M and 1.723M BELOW the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro