Economic Indicators

Mortgage Apps: Continued Hints of Rate Impulse

Wednesday, 12/07/22
Applications fell in the first full week following the Thanksgiving holiday, led lower by applications for purchases. The average effective 30-year mortgage rate was down to 6.6%, roughly 50bps below its high of early...

Employment: Continued Job and Wage Gains

Friday, 12/02/22
Job gains in November were nearly as strong as in October, coming in better than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, double expectations with positive revisions to previously reported data. Wage gains in transportation...

ISM Manufacturing: Contraction & Lower Prices

Thursday, 12/01/22
ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers dropped below 50, demarcating contraction, as new orders fell even further. As we've seen in many surveys, production growth was still modestly positive as manufacturers...

Jobless Claims: Stalled in Thanksgiving Week

Thursday, 12/01/22
Claims fell over 50k on a non-seasonally adjusted basis last week, even more than the seasonal adjustment model suggested, pushing the reported level of claims back down to 225k. Seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving...

3Q22 GDP: Bigger Rebound, Trend Still Slower

Wednesday, 11/30/22
The first revision of the 3rd Quarter GDP showed growth was 0.3% stronger than initially reported, now 2.9% versus 2.6% initially reported. This was even slightly higher than the consensus. Consumption growth drove the...

ADP: Declines Across Several Sectors

Wednesday, 11/30/22
ADP reported weaker-than-expected job gains in November. Leisure and hospitality jobs rose sharply for the second month, but a host of sectors saw losses. Manufacturing jobs fell by 100k, a huge decline for that sector, as ADP's...

JOLTS: Slack Slowly Showing

Wednesday, 11/30/22
The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed lower openings as the labor market slowly slackened. We should recall that JOLTS is lagged (these are October data, and the November employment report is due...

Mortgage Apps: Hints of Rate Impulse Suggest Strong Demand

Wednesday, 11/30/22
Applications fell just slightly more than the MBA's seasonal adjustment factor for the Thanksgiving holiday, always a hard one to adjust for given the extent of Friday mortgage banking activity is hard to predict. While secondary...

Case Shiller Home Prices: Third Month of Declines

Tuesday, 11/29/22
Home prices fell sharply in September, falling for the third consecutive month, mostly as expected. The declines in the third quarter annualized at 12.5%, a pace we have only seen during the financial crisis. Price declines started in May but...

Consumer Confidence: Sliding Into Holidays

Tuesday, 11/29/22
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell again in November, hitting a four-month low and suggesting consumers were less optimistic heading into the holiday shopping season. Consumers' confidence in their current...

11/23/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Rebound After Initial Survey Drop
11/23/2022 - Jobless Claims: Jump, Old Highs Not Far
11/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers
11/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Rebound, No Change in Trend
11/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Lower, As Expected
11/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Slower Declines, Still Major Drag
11/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Lower, Trend Mixed To Higher
11/17/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Drop As New Orders Plunge
11/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Hard Data Confirms Surveys
11/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Spur Slight Uptick
11/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Surprise Reacceleration
11/10/2022 - CPI: Key Categories Consistent with Declining Trend
11/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Edge Higher
11/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchase Apps Edge Higher
11/04/2022 - Employment: Surprisingly Strong Gains Continued
11/03/2022 - International Trade: Balance Turns Lower
11/02/2022 - ADP: Headline Job Growth, Details More Mixed
11/02/2022 - FOMC Update
11/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Surprise Spending On Manufacturing Plants
11/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Barely Hanging On
11/01/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Conditions Even As Hiring Slows
10/28/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound Off Lows
10/27/2022 - 3Q22 GDP: Solid Rebound, Trend Still Slower
10/27/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continued Low Readings
10/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Drag on Growth More Severe
10/25/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Second Month of Declines
10/25/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Surprise Decline
10/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Lower, As Expected
10/20/2022 - Jobless Claims: Labor Still Tight
10/20/2022 - Philly Fed: Second Month of Declines
10/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Slide Resumed In Late 3Q
10/18/2022 - Industrial Production: Upside Surprise, But 4Q Still In Doubt
10/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Inflation Expectations Jump
10/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid But Decelerating Core Gains
10/13/2022 - CPI: Lagged Home Price Impact + Jump in Medical Care
10/13/2022 - Jobless Claims: A Second Wave Higher?
10/12/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Even Lower
10/12/2022 - Producer Prices: Encouraging Deceleration
10/07/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains Will Keep Fed Hiking
10/06/2022 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump
10/05/2022 - ADP: Continued Gains, Details More Mixed
10/05/2022 - International Trade: Continued Improving Trend
10/05/2022 - ISM Services: Solid Gains, Some Cracks Developing
10/05/2022 - Mortgage Apps: A Near Complete Halt
10/04/2022 - Factory Orders: Deceleration Continues, Still Growth For Now
10/04/2022 - JOLTS: Sharp Drop, But With Caveats
10/03/2022 - Construction Spending: Drag on 3Q Growth
10/03/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Fall, Growth Barely Hanging On
09/30/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Slight Drop, Inflation Expectations Lower
09/29/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2Q Still Down, But Slightly Better Outlook for 3Q
09/29/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continued Declines
09/28/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Push Towards 7%
09/27/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Record Declines
09/27/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Continued Rebound
09/27/2022 - New Home Sales: Sharp Rebound
09/22/2022 - Jobless Claims: No Signs Powell's Rebalance
09/21/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Better But Still Trending Lower, Mortgage Apps Low
09/21/2022 - FOMC Update
09/20/2022 - Housing Starts: Sharp Rebound, Trend Still Concerning
09/16/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound
09/15/2022 - Jobless Claims: No Signs of Slowdown in Labor Market
09/15/2022 - Philly Fed & Empire: Manufacturing Contraction
09/15/2022 - Retail Sales: Core Gains Moderate
09/14/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Move Higher Still
09/14/2022 - Producer Prices: Slowly Cooling
09/13/2022 - CPI: Surprise Increase, Despite Lower Gasoline Prices
09/08/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines Into Labor Day Weekend
09/02/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains But Hints of Deceleration
09/02/2022 - Factory Orders: Sharp Decline As Production Holds Up
09/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Continued Declines
09/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Continued Gains As Price Pressures Ease
09/01/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines To End August
09/01/2022 - Productivity: Declined As Labor Costs Jumped
08/31/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Record Lows
08/30/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Decelerating Gains
08/30/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound
08/30/2022 - JOLTS: Surprise Jump in Openings
08/25/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2Q Revised Less Negative
08/25/2022 - Jobless Claims: Topping Out?
08/24/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Headed for Record Lows?
08/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Plunged Further In July
08/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Weaker And Prices Started To Fall
08/18/2022 - Jobless Claims: Lower Again
08/18/2022 - Philly Fed: Higher But Orders Still Falling
08/17/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid Gains Continued
08/16/2022 - Housing Starts: Steep Decline
08/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Trends Turn Lower
08/12/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound
08/11/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slightly Lower
08/11/2022 - Producer Prices: Modest Easing; Sub-3 in 2023?
08/10/2022 - CPI: Cooler Readings As Trend Starts To Decelerate
08/10/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Small Rebound From Depressed Levels
08/09/2022 - Productivity: Another Decline As Labor Costs Jump
08/05/2022 - Employment: Strong Gains, Only Some Caveats
08/04/2022 - International Trade: Shifting To A Positive
08/04/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher
08/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building
08/03/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Rebound On Lower Rates
08/02/2022 - JOLTS: Hints of Looser Labor Markets
08/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Sharp Declines
08/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Fall As Inventories Build
07/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound From Record Lows
07/28/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2nd Quarter of Contraction
07/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher
07/27/2022 - FOMC Update
07/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Declines
07/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Hint of Deceleration
07/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines
07/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Sharp Drop
07/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Decline in Manufacturing
07/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Quarter Closed With Three Straight Declines
07/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Record Lows
07/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Single-Family Slower, Multi-family Still Strong
07/15/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound From Record Lows
07/15/2022 - Retail Sales: June Rebound, Trends Still Modestly Higher
07/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/14/2022 - Producer Prices: No Let Up...Yet
07/13/2022 - CPI: Headline Leaps As Core Eases Only Slightly
07/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Further Declines as Purchase Trend Dives
07/08/2022 - Employment: Continued Solid Job Gains
07/07/2022 - International Trade: Hints of Improvement in 2Q
07/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/06/2022 - JOLTS: Cracks in a Tight Labor Market
07/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Apps Drop for First Time in 4 Weeks
07/05/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building
07/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Slowdown
06/30/2022 - Jobless Claims: Inching Higher
06/29/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Final Reading Lower As Quarter Ends on Weak Note
06/29/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Increases
06/28/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Further Gains, Despite Slowdown
06/28/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Sharply Lower
06/24/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Record Low
06/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Suprise Jump, Trend Still Lower
06/23/2022 - Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs
06/22/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers As Rates Soar
06/21/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Sharp Declines
06/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Still Robust But Hints of Cracks
06/16/2022 - Housing Starts: Downward Acceleration
06/16/2022 - Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs
06/16/2022 - Philly Fed: Another Sharp Drop, New Orders Decline
06/15/2022 - FOMC
06/15/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers As Rates Soar
06/15/2022 - Retail Sales: Slower May, Trends Still Up But Shaky
06/14/2022 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease Just a Touch
06/10/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Stunning Plunge
06/10/2022 - CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases
06/09/2022 - Jobless Claims: Jump Due to Seasonals
06/08/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Fall Towards Record Lows
06/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Trending Higher With Prices
06/03/2022 - Employment: Continued Solid Gains
06/03/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust
06/02/2022 - ADP & Claims: Slower Gains, Claims Still Show Tight Market
06/02/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust But Decelerating
06/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Rebound, Continued Solid Activity
06/01/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
06/01/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide
05/31/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Strong Gains
05/31/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Downtick
05/27/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Revised Even Lower
05/25/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide
05/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Plunge in April
05/19/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Declines In April
05/19/2022 - Jobless Claims: Third Week of Increases
05/19/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Drop, Lowest In 2 Years, Details Better
05/18/2022 - Housing Starts: Slight Decline As Rates Rose
05/18/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Drop to Lowest Since Pandemic
05/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Continued Re-Acceleration
05/17/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid April, Upward Revisions
05/13/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Decline
05/12/2022 - Jobless Claims: Another Slight Increase, Not Yet A Concern
05/12/2022 - Producer Prices: Revised Sharply Higher
05/11/2022 - CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases
05/11/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Edge Higher Again
05/11/2022 - Treasury Budget: Record April Surplus
05/08/2022 - Employment: Solid Job Gains, Hints of Cracks
05/05/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Increase
05/05/2022 - Productivity: Decline As Labor Costs Jump
05/04/2022 - ADP Employment: Modest Gains
05/04/2022 - FOMC
05/04/2022 - International Trade: Sharply Wider Trade Deficit
05/04/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust
05/04/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound
05/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Continued Growth Amid Volatility
05/03/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
05/02/2022 - Construction Spending: Gains Petered Out As Rates Rose
04/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Decline
04/28/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Down But Not Out
04/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Steady, Strong Labor Market
04/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Plunge Continued as Rates Breach 5.5%
04/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Surprisingly Strong Gains
04/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Steady For Now
04/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
04/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Slight Rebound, Not Yet A Concern
04/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Prices Surge, Order Growth Slows
04/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Slowdown As Rates Rose
04/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Lower Again
04/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Rebound
04/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Continued Solid Consumption
04/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refi Slide Continues, Purchases Edge Higher
04/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Record Increase
04/12/2022 - CPI: Headline Jumps, Core Offers Hints of Easing
04/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Start Drop As Refis Continue Plunge
04/01/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains as Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.6%
03/31/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
03/30/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Downward Revisions, Hints of Concern
03/30/2022 - ADP Employment: Continued Gains
03/30/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Plunge Further, Purchases Hold Up
03/29/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Start '22
03/29/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines on Net
03/29/2022 - JOLTs: Continued Tight Labor Markets
03/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: 5.4% Inflation Hurts Expectations
03/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline, Lowest Since '69
03/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline As Rates Near 4.75%
03/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
03/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Sharp Decline Amid Higher Rates
03/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Resilient To Rate Rise
03/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Slight Re-Acceleration
03/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Settling Into the 200k Area
03/17/2022 - Philly Fed: Swift Rebound
03/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Decline Amid Higher Rates
03/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Discretionary Spending Eases Amid Inflation
03/15/2022 - Producer Prices: Core Prices Cool, Watch Steel
03/10/2022 - CPI: Flying Higher, Hints of Peaking
03/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slight Rebound
03/10/2022 - Treasury Budget: Sharply Wider, Tracking As Expected
03/09/2022 - JOLTs: Even Tighter Labor Markets
03/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rebound Amid Brief Rate Reprieve
03/08/2022 - International Trade: Wider Ahead of Global Trade Shock
03/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Card Balances Lower Ahead of Gas Price Spike
03/04/2022 - Employment: Another Remarkably Strong Labor Report
03/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Improvement To Start '22
03/03/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Deceleration
03/03/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines
03/03/2022 - Productivity: Rebound in 4Q
03/02/2022 - ADP Employment: Solid Gains, Major Upward Revisions
03/02/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Declines
03/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Stronger End To '21, Solid Start to '22
03/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Continued Robust Activity
02/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sustained Decline
02/24/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Upward Revisions, 1st Quarter Tracking Lower
02/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline
02/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Strong Sales in Dec & Jan
02/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Second Week of Sharp Declines
02/22/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Close '21
02/22/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Modest Decline As Expectations Ease
02/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Uptick As Buyers Feared Higher Rates
02/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Swiftly Lower Amid Higher Rates
02/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
02/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Rebound, Mostly Due to Weather
02/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Further Declines as Rates Push Towards 4.25%
02/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Huge Seasonal Adjustments, Trend Slightly Lower
02/15/2022 - NY Empire Manufacturing: Barely Rebounds
02/15/2022 - Producer Prices: Surprise Upside As Medical Care Prices Jump
02/11/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Drop
02/10/2022 - CPI: No Signs of Cooling, 40+ year Highs
02/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Moving Lower Again
02/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Swift Decline, Rates Near 4%
02/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Card Balances Edge Higher Into Year-End
02/04/2022 - Employment: Strong Across The Board
02/03/2022 - Jobless Claims: Still Over 250k
02/03/2022 - Productivity: Rebound in 4Q
02/02/2022 - ADP Employment: Surprise Decline
02/02/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Rebound, Refi Trend Still Down
02/01/2022 - JOLTs: Openings Hold Near Record Into Year-end
01/28/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Fading Tailwind for Higher-incomes
01/27/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Advance Reading Shows Sharp Rebound
01/27/2022 - Jobless Claims: Still Over 250k
01/26/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Fall Sharply
01/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Strong Sales Close '21, Supply Increased Again
01/25/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains In Late '21
01/25/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Slight Decline As Expectations Ease
01/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Slower To Close '21
01/20/2022 - Jobless Claims: Another Sharp Increase
01/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Further Gains To Close '21
01/19/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Resilient Purchase Volumes
01/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Another Tun Lower, Lower Income Hit Hard
01/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Surprise Decline, Heavily Skewed By Seasonal Model
01/13/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Increase, Not Yet a Trend Changer
01/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Good Ease, Hints of Deceleration After Record
01/12/2022 - CPI: Still Running Hot, Headline Hits 7%
01/12/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Continue Higher
01/07/2022 - Employment: Headline Miss, Solid Details Again
01/06/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slight Increase, Nowcast Notably Higher
01/05/2022 - ADP Employment: 800+k, 2x Expectations
01/05/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Near '21 Highs, Housing Trend Shift?
01/04/2022 - JOLTs: Openings Fell, Quit Rate Hit Record
12/30/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Trend Still Lower
12/28/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Modest Deceleration
12/23/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound Confirmed, Risks Remain
12/23/2021 - Jobless Claims: Steady Ahead of Holidays
12/23/2021 - New Home Sales: Another Sharp Downward Revision
12/22/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Modest Growth, 4Q Likely Stronger, 1st Quarter '21?
12/22/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound Led By Expectations
12/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Slight Miss, Trend Still Higher
12/16/2021 - Housing Starts: Sharp Rebound, Trend Still Robust
12/16/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Increase, Trend Still Lower
12/15/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Slide, Purchases Steady
12/15/2021 - Producer Prices: Goods Still Hot, Services Drive Surprise
12/15/2021 - Retail Sales: Declines in Key Holiday Segments
12/10/2021 - CPI: Still Running Hot, Headline Pushes Towards 7%
12/09/2021 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline Due To Seasonal Adjustments
12/08/2021 - JOLTs: Openings Remained Stunningly High
12/08/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Steady Trends, Higher Secondary Spreads