Economic Indicators

Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound

Friday, 08/12/22
After hitting record lows in June, consumer sentiment continued to rebound, according to the preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan survey. Led by future expectations, the index measuring how consumers feel...

Jobless Claims: Slightly Lower

Thursday, 08/11/22
Claims moved a touch lower, and there were modest downward revisions to prior weeks' data. Still, the medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a big concern and bears close...

Producer Prices: Modest Easing; Sub-3 in 2023?

Thursday, 08/11/22
Producer prices fell in July, led by lower energy prices. But core prices rose less than expected too. The biggest driver of increases at the core level remained margins in the trade services sectors. Outside of that, though,...

CPI: Cooler Readings As Trend Starts To Decelerate

Wednesday, 08/10/22
CPI was flat in July as energy prices tumbled, and even the core reading was lower than expected at just 0.3%, easing the trend rate of core inflation back below 4%.

Mortgage Apps: Small Rebound From Depressed Levels

Wednesday, 08/10/22
Mortgage applications rose only slightly to start August, with applications for refinancing edging up but purchase applications dropping again. After secondary market yields dropped in mid-July, it took several weeks for...

Productivity: Another Decline As Labor Costs Jump

Tuesday, 08/09/22
The preliminary reading of productivity and costs for the 2nd Quarter showed a second consecutive quarter of sharp productivity declines as output fell and hours worked increased, resulting in unit labor costs rising 10+%. As we...

Employment: Strong Gains, Only Some Caveats

Friday, 08/05/22
Job gains were sharply stronger than expected in July, adding 528k jobs with stronger average hourly earnings. The household employment report (used to calculate the unemployment rate) showed gains of 179k, notably lower than the establishment survey...

International Trade: Shifting To A Positive

Thursday, 08/04/22
The US trade deficit declined slightly for the third month in June as exports rose and imports fell slightly. The goods trade deficit improved sharply in the final months of the 2nd Quarter as consumer demand slowed and domestic inventories of consumer goods...

Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher

Thursday, 08/04/22
Claims moved higher again last week, mostly as expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the ninth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after...

Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building

Wednesday, 08/03/22
The June Factory Orders report surprised to the upside with positive revisions as the volatile automobile sector continued to rebound after supply-induced slowdowns. This June report offers the potential for upward revisions to the 2nd Quarter GDP tally...

Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Rebound On Lower Rates

Wednesday, 08/03/22
Mortgage applications rose slightly but remained near record lows even as effective mortgage rates fell to 5.62% after eclipsing 6% earlier in the month. Mortgage bankers were finally able to pass along some of the decline in secondary mortgage market rates to...

JOLTS: Hints of Looser Labor Markets

Tuesday, 08/02/22
The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey revealed fewer job openings and hires than expected in June. While still near record levels, openings reveal some easing of tight labor markets. The JOLTS report is lagged relative to other labor market ...

Construction Spending: Sharp Declines

Monday, 08/01/22
Construction spending fell sharply, countering expectations for slight gains in June. Residential construction, which has been the sole driver of construction gains since the pandemic, which has been the sole driver of construction gains since the pandemic...

ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Fall As Inventories Build

Monday, 08/01/22
ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers still showed modestly positive growth as production held up. But new orders contracted, and inventories continued to build. The difference between new orders and inventories, often a more forward-looking indicator...

07/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound From Record Lows
07/28/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2nd Quarter of Contraction
07/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher
07/27/2022 - FOMC Update
07/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Declines
07/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Hint of Deceleration
07/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines
07/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Sharp Drop
07/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Decline in Manufacturing
07/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Quarter Closed With Three Straight Declines
07/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Record Lows
07/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Single-Family Slower, Multi-family Still Strong
07/15/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound From Record Lows
07/15/2022 - Retail Sales: June Rebound, Trends Still Modestly Higher
07/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/14/2022 - Producer Prices: No Let Up...Yet
07/13/2022 - CPI: Headline Leaps As Core Eases Only Slightly
07/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Further Declines as Purchase Trend Dives
07/08/2022 - Employment: Continued Solid Job Gains
07/07/2022 - International Trade: Hints of Improvement in 2Q
07/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/06/2022 - JOLTS: Cracks in a Tight Labor Market
07/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Apps Drop for First Time in 4 Weeks
07/05/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building
07/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Slowdown
06/30/2022 - Jobless Claims: Inching Higher
06/29/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Final Reading Lower As Quarter Ends on Weak Note
06/29/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Increases
06/28/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Further Gains, Despite Slowdown
06/28/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Sharply Lower
06/24/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Record Low
06/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Suprise Jump, Trend Still Lower
06/23/2022 - Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs
06/22/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers As Rates Soar
06/21/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Sharp Declines
06/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Still Robust But Hints of Cracks
06/16/2022 - Housing Starts: Downward Acceleration
06/16/2022 - Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs
06/16/2022 - Philly Fed: Another Sharp Drop, New Orders Decline
06/15/2022 - FOMC
06/15/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers As Rates Soar
06/15/2022 - Retail Sales: Slower May, Trends Still Up But Shaky
06/14/2022 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease Just a Touch
06/10/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Stunning Plunge
06/10/2022 - CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases
06/09/2022 - Jobless Claims: Jump Due to Seasonals
06/08/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Fall Towards Record Lows
06/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Trending Higher With Prices
06/03/2022 - Employment: Continued Solid Gains
06/03/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust
06/02/2022 - ADP & Claims: Slower Gains, Claims Still Show Tight Market
06/02/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust But Decelerating
06/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Rebound, Continued Solid Activity
06/01/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
06/01/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide
05/31/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Strong Gains
05/31/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Downtick
05/27/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Revised Even Lower
05/25/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide
05/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Plunge in April
05/19/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Declines In April
05/19/2022 - Jobless Claims: Third Week of Increases
05/19/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Drop, Lowest In 2 Years, Details Better
05/18/2022 - Housing Starts: Slight Decline As Rates Rose
05/18/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Drop to Lowest Since Pandemic
05/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Continued Re-Acceleration
05/17/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid April, Upward Revisions
05/13/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Decline
05/12/2022 - Jobless Claims: Another Slight Increase, Not Yet A Concern
05/12/2022 - Producer Prices: Revised Sharply Higher
05/11/2022 - CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases
05/11/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Edge Higher Again
05/11/2022 - Treasury Budget: Record April Surplus
05/08/2022 - Employment: Solid Job Gains, Hints of Cracks
05/05/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Increase
05/05/2022 - Productivity: Decline As Labor Costs Jump
05/04/2022 - ADP Employment: Modest Gains
05/04/2022 - FOMC
05/04/2022 - International Trade: Sharply Wider Trade Deficit
05/04/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust
05/04/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound
05/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Continued Growth Amid Volatility
05/03/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
05/02/2022 - Construction Spending: Gains Petered Out As Rates Rose
04/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Decline
04/28/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Down But Not Out
04/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Steady, Strong Labor Market
04/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Plunge Continued as Rates Breach 5.5%
04/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Surprisingly Strong Gains
04/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Steady For Now
04/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
04/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Slight Rebound, Not Yet A Concern
04/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Prices Surge, Order Growth Slows
04/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Slowdown As Rates Rose
04/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Lower Again
04/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Rebound
04/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Continued Solid Consumption
04/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refi Slide Continues, Purchases Edge Higher
04/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Record Increase
04/12/2022 - CPI: Headline Jumps, Core Offers Hints of Easing
04/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Start Drop As Refis Continue Plunge
04/01/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains as Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.6%
03/31/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
03/30/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Downward Revisions, Hints of Concern
03/30/2022 - ADP Employment: Continued Gains
03/30/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Plunge Further, Purchases Hold Up
03/29/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Start '22
03/29/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines on Net
03/29/2022 - JOLTs: Continued Tight Labor Markets
03/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: 5.4% Inflation Hurts Expectations
03/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline, Lowest Since '69
03/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline As Rates Near 4.75%
03/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
03/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Sharp Decline Amid Higher Rates
03/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Resilient To Rate Rise
03/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Slight Re-Acceleration
03/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Settling Into the 200k Area
03/17/2022 - Philly Fed: Swift Rebound
03/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Decline Amid Higher Rates
03/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Discretionary Spending Eases Amid Inflation
03/15/2022 - Producer Prices: Core Prices Cool, Watch Steel
03/10/2022 - CPI: Flying Higher, Hints of Peaking
03/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slight Rebound
03/10/2022 - Treasury Budget: Sharply Wider, Tracking As Expected
03/09/2022 - JOLTs: Even Tighter Labor Markets
03/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rebound Amid Brief Rate Reprieve
03/08/2022 - International Trade: Wider Ahead of Global Trade Shock
03/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Card Balances Lower Ahead of Gas Price Spike
03/04/2022 - Employment: Another Remarkably Strong Labor Report
03/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Improvement To Start '22
03/03/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Deceleration
03/03/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines
03/03/2022 - Productivity: Rebound in 4Q
03/02/2022 - ADP Employment: Solid Gains, Major Upward Revisions
03/02/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Declines
03/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Stronger End To '21, Solid Start to '22
03/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Continued Robust Activity
02/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sustained Decline
02/24/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Upward Revisions, 1st Quarter Tracking Lower
02/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline
02/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Strong Sales in Dec & Jan
02/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Second Week of Sharp Declines
02/22/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Close '21
02/22/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Modest Decline As Expectations Ease
02/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Uptick As Buyers Feared Higher Rates
02/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Swiftly Lower Amid Higher Rates
02/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
02/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Rebound, Mostly Due to Weather
02/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Further Declines as Rates Push Towards 4.25%
02/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Huge Seasonal Adjustments, Trend Slightly Lower
02/15/2022 - NY Empire Manufacturing: Barely Rebounds
02/15/2022 - Producer Prices: Surprise Upside As Medical Care Prices Jump
02/11/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Drop
02/10/2022 - CPI: No Signs of Cooling, 40+ year Highs
02/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Moving Lower Again
02/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Swift Decline, Rates Near 4%
02/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Card Balances Edge Higher Into Year-End
02/04/2022 - Employment: Strong Across The Board
02/03/2022 - Jobless Claims: Still Over 250k
02/03/2022 - Productivity: Rebound in 4Q
02/02/2022 - ADP Employment: Surprise Decline
02/02/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Rebound, Refi Trend Still Down
02/01/2022 - JOLTs: Openings Hold Near Record Into Year-end
01/28/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Fading Tailwind for Higher-incomes
01/27/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Advance Reading Shows Sharp Rebound
01/27/2022 - Jobless Claims: Still Over 250k
01/26/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Fall Sharply
01/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Strong Sales Close '21, Supply Increased Again
01/25/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains In Late '21
01/25/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Slight Decline As Expectations Ease
01/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Slower To Close '21
01/20/2022 - Jobless Claims: Another Sharp Increase
01/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Further Gains To Close '21
01/19/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Resilient Purchase Volumes
01/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Another Tun Lower, Lower Income Hit Hard
01/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Surprise Decline, Heavily Skewed By Seasonal Model
01/13/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Increase, Not Yet a Trend Changer
01/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Good Ease, Hints of Deceleration After Record
01/12/2022 - CPI: Still Running Hot, Headline Hits 7%
01/12/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Continue Higher
01/07/2022 - Employment: Headline Miss, Solid Details Again
01/06/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slight Increase, Nowcast Notably Higher
01/05/2022 - ADP Employment: 800+k, 2x Expectations
01/05/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Near '21 Highs, Housing Trend Shift?
01/04/2022 - JOLTs: Openings Fell, Quit Rate Hit Record
12/30/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Trend Still Lower
12/28/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Modest Deceleration
12/23/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound Confirmed, Risks Remain
12/23/2021 - Jobless Claims: Steady Ahead of Holidays
12/23/2021 - New Home Sales: Another Sharp Downward Revision
12/22/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Modest Growth, 4Q Likely Stronger, 1st Quarter '21?
12/22/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound Led By Expectations
12/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Slight Miss, Trend Still Higher
12/16/2021 - Housing Starts: Sharp Rebound, Trend Still Robust
12/16/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Increase, Trend Still Lower
12/15/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Slide, Purchases Steady
12/15/2021 - Producer Prices: Goods Still Hot, Services Drive Surprise
12/15/2021 - Retail Sales: Declines in Key Holiday Segments
12/10/2021 - CPI: Still Running Hot, Headline Pushes Towards 7%
12/09/2021 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline Due To Seasonal Adjustments
12/08/2021 - JOLTs: Openings Remained Stunningly High
12/08/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Steady Trends, Higher Secondary Spreads
12/03/2021 - Employment: Surprise Miss, Details Much Better Than Headline
12/02/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound Seasonally Adjusted
12/01/2021 - ADP Employment: Another Month of Solid Gains
12/01/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline Amid Thanksgiving Holiday
11/30/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Further Deceleration
11/30/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Modest Decline Pre-Omicron
11/24/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Revised Only Slightly Higher
11/24/2021 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Decline, Mostly Seasonals
11/24/2021 - New Home Sales: Surprise Negative Revisions, Trend Still OK
11/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Further Rebound In October
11/18/2021 - Jobless Claims:Modest Rebound, Seasonal Volatility Increasing
11/17/2021 - Housing Starts: Slower To Start 4th Quarter
11/17/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Tumble, Purchases Edge Higher
11/16/2021 - Industrial Production: Autos Drive Rebound
11/16/2021 - Retail Sales: Early Holiday Shopping Drives Strong Gains
11/12/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Inflation, A Major Consumer Fear
11/10/2021 - CPI: OER Acceleration Begins
11/10/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines, Despite Anomalies
11/09/2021 - Producer Prices: Goods Still Hot, Services Hint At Deceleration
11/05/2021 - Employment: Solid Gains, Details and Revisions Even Better
11/04/2021 - International Trade: Continued Widening
11/04/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Decline, Post-Pandemic Lows
11/04/2021 - Productivity: Sharp Decline Masks Solid Post-Pandemic Trend
11/03/2021 - ADP Employment: Another Month of Solid Gains
11/03/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Decline After Rebound, Despite Lower Rates
10/29/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Slight Rebound
10/28/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Even Slower Than Expected
10/28/2021 - Jobless Claims: Another Decline, Headed in Right Direction
10/27/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound, Buyers Still Showing Up
10/26/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Hints of Deceleration
10/26/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound, Inflation Expectations Jump
10/26/2021 - New Home Sales: Swift Rebound
10/21/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Surprising Rebound
10/21/2021 - Jobless Claims: New Post-Pandemic Lows
10/20/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Decline Steepens Amid Higher Mortgage Rates
10/19/2021 - Housing Starts: Slower 3rd Quarter
10/14/2021 - Jobless Claims: Declining Trend Resumed
10/14/2021 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease A Touch More
10/13/2021 - CPI: Core Pressures Remain
10/13/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Mixed After Initial Decline on Higher Rates
10/12/2021 - JOLTs: Openings Slip From Record Highs
10/08/2021 - Employment: Slower Gains, Details Reveal Heavy Seasonal Adjustments
10/07/2021 - Jobless Claims: Declining Again
10/06/2021 - ADP Employment: Strong Gains As Leisure and Hospitality Hires
10/06/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline As Rates Rise
10/01/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Waiting Out Higher Prices
09/30/2021 - 2Q21 GDP: Modest Upward Revision, 3Q Likely Cooler
09/30/2021 - Jobless Claims: Another Surprise Jump
09/29/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Decline As Rebounds Prove Short-Lived
09/28/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains Through Mid-Summer
09/28/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Another Swift Decline
09/23/2021 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump
09/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Gains Plateauing
09/22/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Uptick Led By Refis
09/21/2021 - Housing Starts: Modest Rebound
09/17/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Small Rebound After Record Declines
09/16/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
09/16/2021 - Retail Sales: Rebound After Post-Stimulus Declines
09/15/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Mixed To Lower
09/14/2021 - CPI: Cooler But Not a Trend-Changer
09/10/2021 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease Slightly
09/09/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines, Approaching 300k
09/08/2021 - Consumer Credit: Autos Drive Steady Growth, As Cards Remain Choppy
09/08/2021 - JOLTs: Hiring Falls As Openings Jump Again
09/08/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sluggish Volumes Continued
09/03/2021 - Employment: Sharply Lower, Details Less Bad
09/02/2021 - Jobless Claims: Back Under 350k
09/01/2021 - ADP Employment: Modest Gains
09/01/2021 - Construction Spending: Modest Rebound
09/01/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sluggish Volumes Continued
08/31/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Sunbelt Led Further Gains
08/31/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Sharply Lower
08/26/2021 - 2Q21 GDP: Smaller Than Expected Upward Revision
08/26/2021 - Jobless Claims: Mostly Steady
08/25/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sluggish Volumes Continued
08/24/2021 - New Home Sales: Modest Rebound, Better Than Expected
08/23/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Surprise Rebound, Trend Still Decelerating
08/19/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines
08/18/2021 - Housing Starts: Decline More Than Expected
08/18/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Edge Higher, Apps Stumble