Economic Indicators

Jobless Claims: Steady, Still No Uptick

Thursday, 03/23/23
Jobless claims fell slightly last week, coming in below expectations for a modest increase. Claims have remained historically low and have shown no signs of edging higher...

New Home Sales: Muted But Bottoming

Thursday, 03/23/23
New home sales in February were lower than expected, and there were downward revisions to January's surprisingly strong data. Average sale prices inched higher. Overall, new...

FOMC Update

Wednesday, 03/22/23
The FOMC raised its benchmark rate by 25bp to a new range of 4.75%-5.00%, the highest since September 2007. This rate hike marks the 9th hike in a row since the Fed began hiking in May 2022. The Fed anticipates that...

Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Gains Despite Volatility

Wednesday, 03/22/23
Mortgage applications rose for the third consecutive week, despite massive interest rate volatility and banking uncertainty. The 30-year mortgage rate fell sharply, dropping to an average of...

Existing Home Sales: Strong Rebound

Tuesday, 03/21/23
Existing home sales rebounded in February after hitting decade-plus lows in January. While the rebound was statistically significant and much sharper than expected, it is still too early to...

Consumer Sentiment: Quick Drop

Friday, 03/17/23
Consumer sentiment fell sharply in the first half of March, according to the University of Michigan survey, dropping even before the news of bank failures. 85% of survey responses were...

Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline

Thursday, 03/16/23
Jobless claims fell sharply last week after jumping for the first time in five weeks. There were no major seasonal adjustments last week. Moreover, the surprising increases we saw in New York...

Philly Fed: Continued Sharp Decline

Thursday, 03/16/23
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index remained deeply in contraction territory in February as new orders continued to decline. Shipments were sharply lower, as were unfilled orders...

Mortgage Apps: Another Surprise Increase, Despite Turmoil

Wednesday, 03/15/23
Mortgage applications rose last week, despite the turmoil in the banking system. Even as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage still averaged close to 7%, according to...

Producer Prices: Pipeline Pressures Ease

Wednesday, 03/15/23
Producer prices fell in February, with core prices flat, well below expectations. After strong gains in January, producer prices in February were led lower by...

Retail Sales: Core Sales Beat, Trends Turning Higher Again

Wednesday, 03/15/23
Retail sales fell in line with expectations in February as core sales rose, beating expectations for a modest decline. Vehicle and gasoline sales led the headline...

CPI: Stubbornly High Due to Lags

Tuesday, 03/14/23
Consumer prices rose in February, mostly as expected, as gasoline prices rose further. Core CPI was up 0.45%, stubbornly robust as Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER)...

03/10/2023 - Employment: Solid Gains, Wages Cooler, Participation Up
03/09/2023 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump
03/08/2023 - ADP: Solid Rebound
03/08/2023 - JOLTS: Openings Still High, Quit Rate Falls
03/08/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Surprise Increase As Rates Eclipse 7% Again
03/02/2023 - Jobless Claims: Another Surprising Drop
03/02/2023 - Productivity: Revised Sharply Lower
03/01/2023 - Construction Spending: Resi Lower Still, Manufacturing Booms
03/01/2023 - ISM Manufacturing: Orders Down, Employment Down, Prices Up
03/01/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Yet Another Sharp Drop, Record Low for Purchases
02/28/2023 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Six Months of Declines to End '22
02/28/2023 - Consumer Confidence: Surprise Decline
02/24/2023 - Consumer Sentiment: Steadily Edging Higher
02/24/2023 - New Home Sales: Stronger On Big Discounts
02/23/2023 - 4Q22 GDP: Consumer Ended 2022 On A Slow Note
02/23/2023 - Jobless Claims: Still Below 200k
02/22/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Another Sharp Drop, Record Low for Purchases
02/21/2023 - Existing Home Sales: Continued Declines, Pace of Declines Eases
02/16/2023 - Housing Starts: Further Declines To Start '23
02/16/2023 - Jobless Claims: Surprisingly Holding Below 200k
02/16/2023 - Philly Fed: Another Sharp Decline
02/16/2023 - Producer Prices: Pipeline Pressures Higher Again
02/15/2023 - Industrial Production: Hard Data Continues to Confirm Surveys
02/15/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Drop As Rates Bounce
02/15/2023 - Retail Sales: Sharp Rebound, Seasonals At Play
02/14/2023 - CPI: Cooling Only Very Slowly
02/10/2023 - Consumer Sentiment: Above Year-Ago Levels, Still Muted
02/09/2023 - Jobless Claims: Bounce, But Trends Still Mixed
02/08/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Rebound, Signs of Bottoming
02/07/2023 - International Trade:Inched Wider to Closer '22
02/03/2023 - Employment: Huge Gains, Seasonal Caveats, Wages Moderate
02/02/2023 - Jobless Claims: Yet Another Week of Surprising Declines
02/02/2023 - Productivity: Another Rebound But Trends Still Concerning
02/01/2023 - ADP: Slower Job Gains
02/01/2023 - Construction Spending: Nonresidential Slips, Resi Lower Again
02/01/2023 - FOMC Update
02/01/2023 - ISM Manufacturing: Contracting But Holding Onto Employees
02/01/2023 - JOLTS: High Quit Rate Suggests Labor Still Tight
02/01/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline, Mostly Due to Seasonals
01/31/2023 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Fifth Month of Declines
01/31/2023 - Consumer Confidence: Uncertain But Still Off Lows
01/31/2023 - Manufacturing Recap: Further Declines, Outlook Foggy
01/31/2023 - Q4 Employment Cost: Slight Cooling, Still Fodder For Hawks
01/27/2023 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound Holds Firm
01/26/2023 - 4Q22 GDP: Headline Better, Domestic Demand Concerning
01/26/2023 - Jobless Claims: Another Week of Surprising Declines
01/26/2023 - New Home Sales: Rebalancing Act
01/25/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Signs of Life
01/20/2023 - Existing Home Sales: Continued Declines
01/19/2023 - Housing Starts: Continued Declines
01/19/2023 - Jobless Claims: Surprising Declines
01/19/2023 - Philly Fed: Surprising Hints of Brightness
01/18/2023 - Industrial Production: Hard Data Continues to Confirm Surveys
01/18/2023 - Producer Prices: Pipeline Pressures Continued to Ease
01/18/2023 - Retail Sales: '22 Closes With Slower Consumption
01/13/2023 - Consumer Sentiment: Further Rebound As Inflation Eases
01/12/2023 - CPI: Tame, Despite Some Big Surprises
01/12/2023 - Jobless Claims: Steady, Hints of Cracks
01/11/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Secondary Spreads Tighten
01/06/2023 - Employment: Solid Job Gains, Wage Gains Ease
01/05/2023 - ADP: Sharp Rebound in Hiring As Claims Fall
01/04/2023 - ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Near Recession
01/04/2023 - JOLTS: Confoundingly Stubborn Tightness
01/04/2023 - Mortgage Apps: Finish '22 At Record Low
01/03/2023 - Construction Spending: Nonresidential Drove Gains
12/15/2022 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Decline
12/15/2022 - Retail Sales: Housing Taking Its Toll
12/14/2022 - FOMC Update
12/14/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Jump Barely Moves Needle, Watch Rate Impulse
12/13/2022 - CPI: Second Month of Downside Surprise
12/09/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound
12/09/2022 - Producer Prices: Pipeline Pressures Slow Less Than Expected
12/08/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slowly Rising Again
12/07/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Hints of Rate Impulse
12/02/2022 - Employment: Continued Job and Wage Gains
12/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Contraction & Lower Prices
12/01/2022 - Jobless Claims: Stalled in Thanksgiving Week
11/30/2022 - 3Q22 GDP: Bigger Rebound, Trend Still Slower
11/30/2022 - ADP: Declines Across Several Sectors
11/30/2022 - JOLTS: Slack Slowly Showing
11/30/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Hints of Rate Impulse Suggest Strong Demand
11/29/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Third Month of Declines
11/29/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Sliding Into Holidays
11/23/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Rebound After Initial Survey Drop
11/23/2022 - Jobless Claims: Jump, Old Highs Not Far
11/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers
11/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Rebound, No Change in Trend
11/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Lower, As Expected
11/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Slower Declines, Still Major Drag
11/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Lower, Trend Mixed To Higher
11/17/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Drop As New Orders Plunge
11/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Hard Data Confirms Surveys
11/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Spur Slight Uptick
11/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Surprise Reacceleration
11/10/2022 - CPI: Key Categories Consistent with Declining Trend
11/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Edge Higher
11/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchase Apps Edge Higher
11/04/2022 - Employment: Surprisingly Strong Gains Continued
11/03/2022 - International Trade: Balance Turns Lower
11/02/2022 - ADP: Headline Job Growth, Details More Mixed
11/02/2022 - FOMC Update
11/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Surprise Spending On Manufacturing Plants
11/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Barely Hanging On
11/01/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Conditions Even As Hiring Slows
10/28/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound Off Lows
10/27/2022 - 3Q22 GDP: Solid Rebound, Trend Still Slower
10/27/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continued Low Readings
10/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Drag on Growth More Severe
10/25/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Second Month of Declines
10/25/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Surprise Decline
10/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Lower, As Expected
10/20/2022 - Jobless Claims: Labor Still Tight
10/20/2022 - Philly Fed: Second Month of Declines
10/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Slide Resumed In Late 3Q
10/18/2022 - Industrial Production: Upside Surprise, But 4Q Still In Doubt
10/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Inflation Expectations Jump
10/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid But Decelerating Core Gains
10/13/2022 - CPI: Lagged Home Price Impact + Jump in Medical Care
10/13/2022 - Jobless Claims: A Second Wave Higher?
10/12/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Even Lower
10/12/2022 - Producer Prices: Encouraging Deceleration
10/07/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains Will Keep Fed Hiking
10/06/2022 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump
10/05/2022 - ADP: Continued Gains, Details More Mixed
10/05/2022 - International Trade: Continued Improving Trend
10/05/2022 - ISM Services: Solid Gains, Some Cracks Developing
10/05/2022 - Mortgage Apps: A Near Complete Halt
10/04/2022 - Factory Orders: Deceleration Continues, Still Growth For Now
10/04/2022 - JOLTS: Sharp Drop, But With Caveats
10/03/2022 - Construction Spending: Drag on 3Q Growth
10/03/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Fall, Growth Barely Hanging On
09/30/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Slight Drop, Inflation Expectations Lower
09/29/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2Q Still Down, But Slightly Better Outlook for 3Q
09/29/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continued Declines
09/28/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Push Towards 7%
09/27/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Record Declines
09/27/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Continued Rebound
09/27/2022 - New Home Sales: Sharp Rebound
09/22/2022 - Jobless Claims: No Signs Powell's Rebalance
09/21/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Better But Still Trending Lower, Mortgage Apps Low
09/21/2022 - FOMC Update
09/20/2022 - Housing Starts: Sharp Rebound, Trend Still Concerning
09/16/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound
09/15/2022 - Jobless Claims: No Signs of Slowdown in Labor Market
09/15/2022 - Philly Fed & Empire: Manufacturing Contraction
09/15/2022 - Retail Sales: Core Gains Moderate
09/14/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Move Higher Still
09/14/2022 - Producer Prices: Slowly Cooling
09/13/2022 - CPI: Surprise Increase, Despite Lower Gasoline Prices
09/08/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines Into Labor Day Weekend
09/02/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains But Hints of Deceleration
09/02/2022 - Factory Orders: Sharp Decline As Production Holds Up
09/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Continued Declines
09/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Continued Gains As Price Pressures Ease
09/01/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines To End August
09/01/2022 - Productivity: Declined As Labor Costs Jumped
08/31/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Record Lows
08/30/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Decelerating Gains
08/30/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound
08/30/2022 - JOLTS: Surprise Jump in Openings
08/25/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2Q Revised Less Negative
08/25/2022 - Jobless Claims: Topping Out?
08/24/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Headed for Record Lows?
08/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Plunged Further In July
08/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Weaker And Prices Started To Fall
08/18/2022 - Jobless Claims: Lower Again
08/18/2022 - Philly Fed: Higher But Orders Still Falling
08/17/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid Gains Continued
08/16/2022 - Housing Starts: Steep Decline
08/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Trends Turn Lower
08/12/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound
08/11/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slightly Lower
08/11/2022 - Producer Prices: Modest Easing; Sub-3 in 2023?
08/10/2022 - CPI: Cooler Readings As Trend Starts To Decelerate
08/10/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Small Rebound From Depressed Levels
08/09/2022 - Productivity: Another Decline As Labor Costs Jump
08/05/2022 - Employment: Strong Gains, Only Some Caveats
08/04/2022 - International Trade: Shifting To A Positive
08/04/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher
08/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building
08/03/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Rebound On Lower Rates
08/02/2022 - JOLTS: Hints of Looser Labor Markets
08/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Sharp Declines
08/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Fall As Inventories Build
07/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound From Record Lows
07/28/2022 - 2Q22 GDP: 2nd Quarter of Contraction
07/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher
07/27/2022 - FOMC Update
07/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Declines
07/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Hint of Deceleration
07/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines
07/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Sharp Drop
07/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Decline in Manufacturing
07/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Quarter Closed With Three Straight Declines
07/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Record Lows
07/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Single-Family Slower, Multi-family Still Strong
07/15/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound From Record Lows
07/15/2022 - Retail Sales: June Rebound, Trends Still Modestly Higher
07/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/14/2022 - Producer Prices: No Let Up...Yet
07/13/2022 - CPI: Headline Leaps As Core Eases Only Slightly
07/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Further Declines as Purchase Trend Dives
07/08/2022 - Employment: Continued Solid Job Gains
07/07/2022 - International Trade: Hints of Improvement in 2Q
07/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Trending Higher
07/06/2022 - JOLTS: Cracks in a Tight Labor Market
07/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Apps Drop for First Time in 4 Weeks
07/05/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building
07/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Slowdown
06/30/2022 - Jobless Claims: Inching Higher
06/29/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Final Reading Lower As Quarter Ends on Weak Note
06/29/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Increases
06/28/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Further Gains, Despite Slowdown
06/28/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Sharply Lower
06/24/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Record Low
06/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Suprise Jump, Trend Still Lower
06/23/2022 - Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs
06/22/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers As Rates Soar
06/21/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Sharp Declines
06/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Still Robust But Hints of Cracks
06/16/2022 - Housing Starts: Downward Acceleration
06/16/2022 - Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs
06/16/2022 - Philly Fed: Another Sharp Drop, New Orders Decline
06/15/2022 - FOMC
06/15/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Increase Barely Registers As Rates Soar
06/15/2022 - Retail Sales: Slower May, Trends Still Up But Shaky
06/14/2022 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease Just a Touch
06/10/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Stunning Plunge
06/10/2022 - CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases
06/09/2022 - Jobless Claims: Jump Due to Seasonals
06/08/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Fall Towards Record Lows
06/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Trending Higher With Prices
06/03/2022 - Employment: Continued Solid Gains
06/03/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust
06/02/2022 - ADP & Claims: Slower Gains, Claims Still Show Tight Market
06/02/2022 - Factory Orders: Still Robust But Decelerating
06/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Rebound, Continued Solid Activity
06/01/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
06/01/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide
05/31/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Strong Gains
05/31/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Downtick
05/27/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Revised Even Lower
05/25/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide
05/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Plunge in April
05/19/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Declines In April
05/19/2022 - Jobless Claims: Third Week of Increases
05/19/2022 - Philly Fed: Sharp Drop, Lowest In 2 Years, Details Better
05/18/2022 - Housing Starts: Slight Decline As Rates Rose
05/18/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Drop to Lowest Since Pandemic
05/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Continued Re-Acceleration
05/17/2022 - Retail Sales: Solid April, Upward Revisions
05/13/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Decline
05/12/2022 - Jobless Claims: Another Slight Increase, Not Yet A Concern
05/12/2022 - Producer Prices: Revised Sharply Higher
05/11/2022 - CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases
05/11/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Edge Higher Again
05/11/2022 - Treasury Budget: Record April Surplus
05/08/2022 - Employment: Solid Job Gains, Hints of Cracks
05/05/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Increase
05/05/2022 - Productivity: Decline As Labor Costs Jump
05/04/2022 - ADP Employment: Modest Gains
05/04/2022 - FOMC
05/04/2022 - International Trade: Sharply Wider Trade Deficit
05/04/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust
05/04/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound
05/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Continued Growth Amid Volatility
05/03/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
05/02/2022 - Construction Spending: Gains Petered Out As Rates Rose
04/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Decline
04/28/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Down But Not Out
04/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Steady, Strong Labor Market
04/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Plunge Continued as Rates Breach 5.5%
04/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Surprisingly Strong Gains
04/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Steady For Now
04/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
04/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Slight Rebound, Not Yet A Concern
04/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Prices Surge, Order Growth Slows
04/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Slowdown As Rates Rose
04/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Lower Again
04/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Rebound
04/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Continued Solid Consumption
04/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refi Slide Continues, Purchases Edge Higher
04/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Record Increase
04/12/2022 - CPI: Headline Jumps, Core Offers Hints of Easing
04/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Start Drop As Refis Continue Plunge
04/01/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains as Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.6%
03/31/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
03/30/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Downward Revisions, Hints of Concern
03/30/2022 - ADP Employment: Continued Gains
03/30/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Plunge Further, Purchases Hold Up
03/29/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Start '22
03/29/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines on Net
03/29/2022 - JOLTs: Continued Tight Labor Markets
03/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: 5.4% Inflation Hurts Expectations
03/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline, Lowest Since '69
03/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline As Rates Near 4.75%
03/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates