Economic Indicators

Jobless Claims: Another Slight Increase, Not Yet A Concern

Thursday, 05/12/22
Claims were higher for a second week in a row last week, but remained within the 180 - 220k range, where we expect this tight labor market should remain for many months. Moreover, unadjusted claims were lower again this week,...

Producer Prices: Revised Sharply Higher

Thursday, 05/12/22
Producer prices rose slightly less than expected in April but were revised sharply higher for March. Core producer price gains were notably slower in April, but gains for March were revised up from +0.972 to +1.16, and February's gains were...

CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases

Wednesday, 05/11/22
Core CPI rose more than expected in April even as headline price pressures eased with slightly lower energy prices. Year-on-year comparisons for core and headline readings now calibrate off very high readings a year ago, suggesting...

Mortgage Apps: Purchases Edge Higher Again

Wednesday, 05/11/22
Purchase applications edged higher for a second week in a row, even as the effective mortgage rate (adjusted for points paid) hit nearly 5 3/4%. While the trend in purchase applications is still to the downside, the level of applications...

Treasury Budget: Record April Surplus

Wednesday, 05/11/22
The budget deficit saw a surplus of $308 billion, substantially more than expected, as tax payments in April set a monthly record. With this surprisingly strong revenue boost, the budget deficit for the fiscal year ending in September looks...

Employment: Solid Job Gains, Hints of Cracks

Sunday, 05/08/22
Job gains in April were even better than expected, matching March's gains, which were revised only slightly to 428k. Gains were broad-based, with hiring rebounding notably in the warehousing and transportation-related...

Jobless Claims: Modest Increase

Thursday, 05/05/22
Claims were higher last week, bouncing off the low end of what has been a new equilibrium in the 180 - 220k range. That said, much of the increase was due to seasonal factors, as the actual unadjusted tally of claims fell 7k....

Productivity: Decline As Labor Costs Jump

Thursday, 05/05/22
The preliminary reading of productivity and costs for the 1st Quarter showed a sharp drop in productivity as output fell but hours worked, and wages continue to increase. Output fell 2.4%, while hours worked increased 5.5%...

ADP Employment: Modest Gains

Wednesday, 05/04/22
ADP reported slower job gains than expected in April of 247k, well below the consensus expectation of 383k. That said, there there were positive revisions to prior data, with February revised up from +486 to +601 and March...

FOMC

Wednesday, 05/04/22
The FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% for the first time since 2000, and policy makers have not raised the benchmark in successive meetings since 2006. This comes as no surprise to the markets since...

International Trade: Sharply Wider Trade Deficit

Wednesday, 05/04/22
The US trade deficit widened even more than expected in March as both imports and exports rose sharply amid higher prices. As the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia started, the US imported more finished metal...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust

Wednesday, 05/04/22
Activity in the service industry decelerated more than expected in April, but the overall level of the survey's index suggested activity remained historically robust. That said, new order growth decelerated and was...

Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound

Wednesday, 05/04/22
Applications for purchases rebounded slightly as mortgage rates stabilized. While the trend in purchase applications remains firmly to the downside, the level of applications relative to periods of similarly elevated mortgage...
05/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Continued Growth Amid Volatility
05/03/2022 - JOLTS: Continued Tight Labor Markets
05/02/2022 - Construction Spending: Gains Petered Out As Rates Rose
04/29/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Decline
04/28/2022 - 1Q22 GDP: Down But Not Out
04/28/2022 - Jobless Claims: Steady, Strong Labor Market
04/27/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Plunge Continued as Rates Breach 5.5%
04/26/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Surprisingly Strong Gains
04/26/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Steady For Now
04/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
04/21/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Slight Rebound, Not Yet A Concern
04/21/2022 - Philly Fed: Prices Surge, Order Growth Slows
04/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Further Slowdown As Rates Rose
04/20/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Lower Again
04/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Rebound
04/14/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Continued Solid Consumption
04/13/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refi Slide Continues, Purchases Edge Higher
04/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Record Increase
04/12/2022 - CPI: Headline Jumps, Core Offers Hints of Easing
04/07/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
04/06/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Start Drop As Refis Continue Plunge
04/01/2022 - Employment: Solid Gains as Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.6%
03/31/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
03/30/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Downward Revisions, Hints of Concern
03/30/2022 - ADP Employment: Continued Gains
03/30/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Plunge Further, Purchases Hold Up
03/29/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Start '22
03/29/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Further Declines on Net
03/29/2022 - JOLTs: Continued Tight Labor Markets
03/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: 5.4% Inflation Hurts Expectations
03/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline, Lowest Since '69
03/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline As Rates Near 4.75%
03/23/2022 - New Home Sales: Lower Amid Higher Mortage Rates
03/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Sharp Decline Amid Higher Rates
03/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Resilient To Rate Rise
03/17/2022 - Industrial Production: Slight Re-Acceleration
03/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Settling Into the 200k Area
03/17/2022 - Philly Fed: Swift Rebound
03/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Decline Amid Higher Rates
03/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Discretionary Spending Eases Amid Inflation
03/15/2022 - Producer Prices: Core Prices Cool, Watch Steel
03/10/2022 - CPI: Flying Higher, Hints of Peaking
03/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slight Rebound
03/10/2022 - Treasury Budget: Sharply Wider, Tracking As Expected
03/09/2022 - JOLTs: Even Tighter Labor Markets
03/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rebound Amid Brief Rate Reprieve
03/08/2022 - International Trade: Wider Ahead of Global Trade Shock
03/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Card Balances Lower Ahead of Gas Price Spike
03/04/2022 - Employment: Another Remarkably Strong Labor Report
03/03/2022 - Factory Orders: Improvement To Start '22
03/03/2022 - ISM Non-Manufacturing: Deceleration
03/03/2022 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines
03/03/2022 - Productivity: Rebound in 4Q
03/02/2022 - ADP Employment: Solid Gains, Major Upward Revisions
03/02/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Third Week of Declines
03/01/2022 - Construction Spending: Stronger End To '21, Solid Start to '22
03/01/2022 - ISM Manufacturing: Continued Robust Activity
02/25/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sustained Decline
02/24/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Upward Revisions, 1st Quarter Tracking Lower
02/24/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline
02/24/2022 - New Home Sales: Strong Sales in Dec & Jan
02/23/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Second Week of Sharp Declines
02/22/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains To Close '21
02/22/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Modest Decline As Expectations Ease
02/18/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Uptick As Buyers Feared Higher Rates
02/17/2022 - Housing Starts: Swiftly Lower Amid Higher Rates
02/17/2022 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
02/16/2022 - Industrial Production: Rebound, Mostly Due to Weather
02/16/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Further Declines as Rates Push Towards 4.25%
02/16/2022 - Retail Sales: Huge Seasonal Adjustments, Trend Slightly Lower
02/15/2022 - NY Empire Manufacturing: Barely Rebounds
02/15/2022 - Producer Prices: Surprise Upside As Medical Care Prices Jump
02/11/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Sharp Drop
02/10/2022 - CPI: No Signs of Cooling, 40+ year Highs
02/10/2022 - Jobless Claims: Moving Lower Again
02/09/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Swift Decline, Rates Near 4%
02/07/2022 - Consumer Credit: Card Balances Edge Higher Into Year-End
02/04/2022 - Employment: Strong Across The Board
02/03/2022 - Jobless Claims: Still Over 250k
02/03/2022 - Productivity: Rebound in 4Q
02/02/2022 - ADP Employment: Surprise Decline
02/02/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Rebound, Refi Trend Still Down
02/01/2022 - JOLTs: Openings Hold Near Record Into Year-end
01/28/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Fading Tailwind for Higher-incomes
01/27/2022 - 4Q21 GDP: Advance Reading Shows Sharp Rebound
01/27/2022 - Jobless Claims: Still Over 250k
01/26/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Fall Sharply
01/26/2022 - New Home Sales: Strong Sales Close '21, Supply Increased Again
01/25/2022 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains In Late '21
01/25/2022 - Consumer Confidence: Slight Decline As Expectations Ease
01/20/2022 - Existing Home Sales: Slower To Close '21
01/20/2022 - Jobless Claims: Another Sharp Increase
01/19/2022 - Housing Starts: Further Gains To Close '21
01/19/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Resilient Purchase Volumes
01/14/2022 - Consumer Sentiment: Another Tun Lower, Lower Income Hit Hard
01/14/2022 - Retail Sales: Surprise Decline, Heavily Skewed By Seasonal Model
01/13/2022 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Increase, Not Yet a Trend Changer
01/13/2022 - Producer Prices: Good Ease, Hints of Deceleration After Record
01/12/2022 - CPI: Still Running Hot, Headline Hits 7%
01/12/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Continue Higher
01/07/2022 - Employment: Headline Miss, Solid Details Again
01/06/2022 - Jobless Claims: Slight Increase, Nowcast Notably Higher
01/05/2022 - ADP Employment: 800+k, 2x Expectations
01/05/2022 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Near '21 Highs, Housing Trend Shift?
01/04/2022 - JOLTs: Openings Fell, Quit Rate Hit Record
12/30/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Trend Still Lower
12/28/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Modest Deceleration
12/23/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Rebound Confirmed, Risks Remain
12/23/2021 - Jobless Claims: Steady Ahead of Holidays
12/23/2021 - New Home Sales: Another Sharp Downward Revision
12/22/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Modest Growth, 4Q Likely Stronger, 1st Quarter '21?
12/22/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound Led By Expectations
12/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Slight Miss, Trend Still Higher
12/16/2021 - Housing Starts: Sharp Rebound, Trend Still Robust
12/16/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Increase, Trend Still Lower
12/15/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Slide, Purchases Steady
12/15/2021 - Producer Prices: Goods Still Hot, Services Drive Surprise
12/15/2021 - Retail Sales: Declines in Key Holiday Segments
12/10/2021 - CPI: Still Running Hot, Headline Pushes Towards 7%
12/09/2021 - Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline Due To Seasonal Adjustments
12/08/2021 - JOLTs: Openings Remained Stunningly High
12/08/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Steady Trends, Higher Secondary Spreads
12/03/2021 - Employment: Surprise Miss, Details Much Better Than Headline
12/02/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound Seasonally Adjusted
12/01/2021 - ADP Employment: Another Month of Solid Gains
12/01/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline Amid Thanksgiving Holiday
11/30/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Further Deceleration
11/30/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Modest Decline Pre-Omicron
11/24/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Revised Only Slightly Higher
11/24/2021 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Decline, Mostly Seasonals
11/24/2021 - New Home Sales: Surprise Negative Revisions, Trend Still OK
11/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Further Rebound In October
11/18/2021 - Jobless Claims:Modest Rebound, Seasonal Volatility Increasing
11/17/2021 - Housing Starts: Slower To Start 4th Quarter
11/17/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Tumble, Purchases Edge Higher
11/16/2021 - Industrial Production: Autos Drive Rebound
11/16/2021 - Retail Sales: Early Holiday Shopping Drives Strong Gains
11/12/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Inflation, A Major Consumer Fear
11/10/2021 - CPI: OER Acceleration Begins
11/10/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines, Despite Anomalies
11/09/2021 - Producer Prices: Goods Still Hot, Services Hint At Deceleration
11/05/2021 - Employment: Solid Gains, Details and Revisions Even Better
11/04/2021 - International Trade: Continued Widening
11/04/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Decline, Post-Pandemic Lows
11/04/2021 - Productivity: Sharp Decline Masks Solid Post-Pandemic Trend
11/03/2021 - ADP Employment: Another Month of Solid Gains
11/03/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Decline After Rebound, Despite Lower Rates
10/29/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Slight Rebound
10/28/2021 - 3Q21 GDP: Even Slower Than Expected
10/28/2021 - Jobless Claims: Another Decline, Headed in Right Direction
10/27/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound, Buyers Still Showing Up
10/26/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Hints of Deceleration
10/26/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Rebound, Inflation Expectations Jump
10/26/2021 - New Home Sales: Swift Rebound
10/21/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Surprising Rebound
10/21/2021 - Jobless Claims: New Post-Pandemic Lows
10/20/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Decline Steepens Amid Higher Mortgage Rates
10/19/2021 - Housing Starts: Slower 3rd Quarter
10/14/2021 - Jobless Claims: Declining Trend Resumed
10/14/2021 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease A Touch More
10/13/2021 - CPI: Core Pressures Remain
10/13/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Mixed After Initial Decline on Higher Rates
10/12/2021 - JOLTs: Openings Slip From Record Highs
10/08/2021 - Employment: Slower Gains, Details Reveal Heavy Seasonal Adjustments
10/07/2021 - Jobless Claims: Declining Again
10/06/2021 - ADP Employment: Strong Gains As Leisure and Hospitality Hires
10/06/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sharp Decline As Rates Rise
10/01/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Waiting Out Higher Prices
09/30/2021 - 2Q21 GDP: Modest Upward Revision, 3Q Likely Cooler
09/30/2021 - Jobless Claims: Another Surprise Jump
09/29/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Slight Decline As Rebounds Prove Short-Lived
09/28/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains Through Mid-Summer
09/28/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Another Swift Decline
09/23/2021 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump
09/22/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Gains Plateauing
09/22/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Uptick Led By Refis
09/21/2021 - Housing Starts: Modest Rebound
09/17/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Small Rebound After Record Declines
09/16/2021 - Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound
09/16/2021 - Retail Sales: Rebound After Post-Stimulus Declines
09/15/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Mixed To Lower
09/14/2021 - CPI: Cooler But Not a Trend-Changer
09/10/2021 - Producer Prices: Core Pressures Ease Slightly
09/09/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines, Approaching 300k
09/08/2021 - Consumer Credit: Autos Drive Steady Growth, As Cards Remain Choppy
09/08/2021 - JOLTs: Hiring Falls As Openings Jump Again
09/08/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sluggish Volumes Continued
09/03/2021 - Employment: Sharply Lower, Details Less Bad
09/02/2021 - Jobless Claims: Back Under 350k
09/01/2021 - ADP Employment: Modest Gains
09/01/2021 - Construction Spending: Modest Rebound
09/01/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sluggish Volumes Continued
08/31/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Sunbelt Led Further Gains
08/31/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Sharply Lower
08/26/2021 - 2Q21 GDP: Smaller Than Expected Upward Revision
08/26/2021 - Jobless Claims: Mostly Steady
08/25/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sluggish Volumes Continued
08/24/2021 - New Home Sales: Modest Rebound, Better Than Expected
08/23/2021 - Existing Home Sales: Surprise Rebound, Trend Still Decelerating
08/19/2021 - Jobless Claims: Further Declines
08/18/2021 - Housing Starts: Decline More Than Expected
08/18/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Rates Edge Higher, Apps Stumble
08/12/2021 - Jobless Claims: Hints of Concern
08/12/2021 - Producer Prices: Sharp Increases Continued
08/11/2021 - CPI: Flying Prices Lose Altitude
08/11/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Sub-3% Rates Finally Nudge Applications Higher
08/09/2021 - JOLTs: Another Record High in Job Openings
08/06/2021 - Employment: Stronger Job Gains, More Participation, More Hours
08/05/2021 - International Trade: Wider, Hints of Trend Stabilizing
08/05/2021 - Jobless Claims: Trend Still Lower For Now
08/04/2021 - ADP Employment: Slower Growth Amid Delta Variant
08/04/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Surprise Decline, Despite Rate Drop
07/30/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Edged Higher, Still Down On Month
07/29/2021 - 2Q21 GDP: Slower Than Expected
07/29/2021 - Jobless Claims: Stubborn at 400k
07/28/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Jump, Respond To Lower Rates
07/27/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Robust Gains
07/27/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Nearing Pre-Pandemic Levels
07/26/2021 - New Home Sales: Second Month of Surprise Declines
07/22/2021 - Jobless Claims: Back Over 400k
07/21/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Refis Ready To Move Higher?
07/16/2021 - Retail Sales: Modest Rebound, Trend Decelerating
07/15/2021 - Industrial Production: Gains Moderate Into Quarter-End
07/15/2021 - Jobless Claims: Slight Uptick, Potential For More
07/14/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Rebound Mostly Due to Adjustments
07/14/2021 - Producer Prices: More Core Pressure
07/08/2021 - Jobless Claims: Little Changed, Nowcast Model Warning
07/07/2021 - JOLTs: Continued Records, Resolution Likely in Autumn
07/07/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slide Into Quarter-End
07/01/2021 - Jobless Claims: Declines Resume
06/30/2021 - ADP Employment: Continued Strong Gains
06/30/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Robust Gains
06/30/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Slumping Into Quarter-End
06/29/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Pandemic Highs
06/25/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Modest Downtick in Late June
06/24/2021 - 1Q21 GDP: Key Components Even Stronger
06/24/2021 - Jobless Claims: Another Surprise Increase, Trend Still Lower
06/23/2021 - New Home Sales: Sharply Lower As Lower-End Buyer Priced Out
06/17/2021 - Jobless Claims: Surprise Increase, Trend Still Lower
06/16/2021 - Housing Starts: Smaller Rebound Than Expected
06/16/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Inflection Point Ahead of Fed
06/15/2021 - Producer Prices: Further Upside Pressure
06/15/2021 - Retail Sales: Another Miss, Hints of Substitution
06/11/2021 - Consumer Sentiment: Expectations Improve With Caveats
06/10/2021 - Jobless Claims: Sixth Week of Improvement
06/09/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Further Slowing But Rates Drop This Week
06/08/2021 - Consumer Credit: Credit Card Spending Contracts Again Amid Stimulus
06/08/2021 - JOLTs: Another Record Opening Tally In April
06/04/2021 - Employment: Labor Gains Modest But Wages Push Higher
06/03/2021 - ADP Employment: Continued Strong Gains
06/03/2021 - Jobless Claims: Below 400k
06/02/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Continued Slow Deterioration in Volumes
05/27/2021 - 1Q21 GDP: Consumer Ended Quarter Even Stronger
05/27/2021 - Jobless Claims: Continued Declines
05/26/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Purchases Inch Higher As Refis Fall
05/25/2021 - Case Shiller Home Prices: Strong Gains To Close 1st Quarter
05/25/2021 - Consumer Confidence: Modest Cooling in Outlooks
05/25/2021 - New Home Sales: Tight Supply And Higher Rates Start To Matter
05/20/2021 - Jobless Claims: Continued Declines
05/19/2021 - Mortgage Apps: Purchase Apps Edge Lower Still
05/18/2021 - Housing Starts: Slower April After Record March