Economic Indicators

Consumer Sentiment: Continued Rebound

Friday, 08/12/22
After hitting record lows in June, consumer sentiment continued to rebound, according to the preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan survey. Led by future expectations, the index measuring how consumers feel...

Jobless Claims: Slightly Lower

Thursday, 08/11/22
Claims moved a touch lower, and there were modest downward revisions to prior weeks' data. Still, the medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a big concern and bears close...

Producer Prices: Modest Easing; Sub-3 in 2023?

Thursday, 08/11/22
Producer prices fell in July, led by lower energy prices. But core prices rose less than expected too. The biggest driver of increases at the core level remained margins in the trade services sectors. Outside of that, though,...

CPI: Cooler Readings As Trend Starts To Decelerate

Wednesday, 08/10/22
CPI was flat in July as energy prices tumbled, and even the core reading was lower than expected at just 0.3%, easing the trend rate of core inflation back below 4%.

Mortgage Apps: Small Rebound From Depressed Levels

Wednesday, 08/10/22
Mortgage applications rose only slightly to start August, with applications for refinancing edging up but purchase applications dropping again. After secondary market yields dropped in mid-July, it took several weeks for...

Productivity: Another Decline As Labor Costs Jump

Tuesday, 08/09/22
The preliminary reading of productivity and costs for the 2nd Quarter showed a second consecutive quarter of sharp productivity declines as output fell and hours worked increased, resulting in unit labor costs rising 10+%. As we...

Employment: Strong Gains, Only Some Caveats

Friday, 08/05/22
Job gains were sharply stronger than expected in July, adding 528k jobs with stronger average hourly earnings. The household employment report (used to calculate the unemployment rate) showed gains of 179k, notably lower than the establishment survey...

International Trade: Shifting To A Positive

Thursday, 08/04/22
The US trade deficit declined slightly for the third month in June as exports rose and imports fell slightly. The goods trade deficit improved sharply in the final months of the 2nd Quarter as consumer demand slowed and domestic inventories of consumer goods...

Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher

Thursday, 08/04/22
Claims moved higher again last week, mostly as expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the ninth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after...

Factory Orders: Still Robust, Inventories Building

Wednesday, 08/03/22
The June Factory Orders report surprised to the upside with positive revisions as the volatile automobile sector continued to rebound after supply-induced slowdowns. This June report offers the potential for upward revisions to the 2nd Quarter GDP tally...

Mortgage Apps: Only Slight Rebound On Lower Rates

Wednesday, 08/03/22
Mortgage applications rose slightly but remained near record lows even as effective mortgage rates fell to 5.62% after eclipsing 6% earlier in the month. Mortgage bankers were finally able to pass along some of the decline in secondary mortgage market rates to...

JOLTS: Hints of Looser Labor Markets

Tuesday, 08/02/22
The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey revealed fewer job openings and hires than expected in June. While still near record levels, openings reveal some easing of tight labor markets. The JOLTS report is lagged relative to other labor market ...

Construction Spending: Sharp Declines

Monday, 08/01/22
Construction spending fell sharply, countering expectations for slight gains in June. Residential construction, which has been the sole driver of construction gains since the pandemic, which has been the sole driver of construction gains since the pandemic...

ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Fall As Inventories Build

Monday, 08/01/22
ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers still showed modestly positive growth as production held up. But new orders contracted, and inventories continued to build. The difference between new orders and inventories, often a more forward-looking indicator...

07/27/2022 - FOMC Update
06/15/2022 - FOMC
05/04/2022 - FOMC