Economic Indicators

Jobless Claims: Another Slight Increase, Not Yet A Concern

Thursday, 05/12/22
Claims were higher for a second week in a row last week, but remained within the 180 - 220k range, where we expect this tight labor market should remain for many months. Moreover, unadjusted claims were lower again this week,...

Producer Prices: Revised Sharply Higher

Thursday, 05/12/22
Producer prices rose slightly less than expected in April but were revised sharply higher for March. Core producer price gains were notably slower in April, but gains for March were revised up from +0.972 to +1.16, and February's gains were...

CPI: Services Jump Even As Year-on-Year Pressure Eases

Wednesday, 05/11/22
Core CPI rose more than expected in April even as headline price pressures eased with slightly lower energy prices. Year-on-year comparisons for core and headline readings now calibrate off very high readings a year ago, suggesting...

Mortgage Apps: Purchases Edge Higher Again

Wednesday, 05/11/22
Purchase applications edged higher for a second week in a row, even as the effective mortgage rate (adjusted for points paid) hit nearly 5 3/4%. While the trend in purchase applications is still to the downside, the level of applications...

Treasury Budget: Record April Surplus

Wednesday, 05/11/22
The budget deficit saw a surplus of $308 billion, substantially more than expected, as tax payments in April set a monthly record. With this surprisingly strong revenue boost, the budget deficit for the fiscal year ending in September looks...

Employment: Solid Job Gains, Hints of Cracks

Sunday, 05/08/22
Job gains in April were even better than expected, matching March's gains, which were revised only slightly to 428k. Gains were broad-based, with hiring rebounding notably in the warehousing and transportation-related...

Jobless Claims: Modest Increase

Thursday, 05/05/22
Claims were higher last week, bouncing off the low end of what has been a new equilibrium in the 180 - 220k range. That said, much of the increase was due to seasonal factors, as the actual unadjusted tally of claims fell 7k....

Productivity: Decline As Labor Costs Jump

Thursday, 05/05/22
The preliminary reading of productivity and costs for the 1st Quarter showed a sharp drop in productivity as output fell but hours worked, and wages continue to increase. Output fell 2.4%, while hours worked increased 5.5%...

ADP Employment: Modest Gains

Wednesday, 05/04/22
ADP reported slower job gains than expected in April of 247k, well below the consensus expectation of 383k. That said, there there were positive revisions to prior data, with February revised up from +486 to +601 and March...

FOMC

Wednesday, 05/04/22
The FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% for the first time since 2000, and policy makers have not raised the benchmark in successive meetings since 2006. This comes as no surprise to the markets since...

International Trade: Sharply Wider Trade Deficit

Wednesday, 05/04/22
The US trade deficit widened even more than expected in March as both imports and exports rose sharply amid higher prices. As the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia started, the US imported more finished metal...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower But Still Robust

Wednesday, 05/04/22
Activity in the service industry decelerated more than expected in April, but the overall level of the survey's index suggested activity remained historically robust. That said, new order growth decelerated and was...

Mortgage Apps: Slight Rebound

Wednesday, 05/04/22
Applications for purchases rebounded slightly as mortgage rates stabilized. While the trend in purchase applications remains firmly to the downside, the level of applications relative to periods of similarly elevated mortgage...