The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
2Q22 GDP: 2Q Still Down, But Slightly Better Outlook for 3Q
September 29, 2022
Bottom Line: The final reading of 2nd Quarter GDP was little changed from its second estimate of a decline of -0.6% annualized. As expected, residential investment was revised lower as housing-related activity continued to slow over the quarter. However, consumption was revised notably higher, with the consumer finishing the quarter on a stronger note as gasoline prices declined. Of course, this is old news with only a day left in the 3rd quarter. The Atlanta Fed's model for 3Q was down to just 0.3% before this report, while the consensus of economist forecasts was more optimistic at 1.4%. Given the continued move in mortgage rates, we expect an even more significant drag from residential investment in the 3rd quarter, but we should see a nice rebound in net exports and a continued positive contribution from consumption.GDP was UNCHANGED at -0.6% in this third estimate for 2022 2nd Quarter. This compared with market expectations for no change revision to -0.6%. Economic activity was still1.8% above its year-ago level.Real final sales were revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4% while real domestic demand was revised up by 0.3 percentage points to 0.2%.The GDP Price Index was REVISED UP by 0.07 points to 9.0%, compared with market expectations of 8.9%. Economy-wide prices were 7.6% ABOVE year-ago levels.
Article by Contingent Macro