Jobless Claims: Modest Decline

Bottom Line:  Claims fell modestly last week after rising for two weeks. Seasonal adjustments were minor, and there were no state-level aberrations, although there were lingering concerns about fraud in Ohio. Claims are historically low, and the trend is mixed. But there are still hints that the labor market is loosening ever so slightly. Continuing claims, for instance, are hinting at a shift higher on a trend basis after declining since April. Overall, the labor market remains historically tight, off the tightest levels but still historically.Initial Jobless Claims FELL -11k in the week ended August 12th to 239k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 234.25k, BELOW the 13-week average of 241.61538k, and 26k ABOVE the year-ago level.Continuing Claims ROSE 32k in the week ended August 5th to 1.716M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.69275M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.735615M and 366k ABOVE the year-ago level.