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Retail Sales: Surprise Reacceleration

November 16, 2022
Bottom Line:   Retail sales were stronger than expected, with core sales led by gains at online retailers as sales at restaurants and bars also accelerated. Despite the weakness in housing, sales at building and garden supply stores were higher, as were home furnishing store sales. There were also upward revisions to previously reported data that pushed annualized core sales up to 9.9% over the three months that ended in October, even slightly faster than the pace of the last six- and 12 months. Overall, this was a solid report that shows consumer spending remained robust in the face of high inflation. Wage gains remained solid, balance sheets were still flush with savings from the pandemic stimulus, and most households still had plenty of open credit to propel spending growth for at least a few quarters.

Total US Retail Sales
ROSE 1.27% ex Auto, Parts & Gas sales ROSE 0.91%. Retail Sales for August were revised up from +0.42% to +0.67%, while  September sales were revised up from -0.0023% to +0.016%. Core Retail Sales for September were revised up from +0.01% to +0.582%. August sales were revised up from -0.464% to +0.882%, while July sales were revised up from +0.0637% to +0.225%.
  • Nonstore (Online)  sales ROSE 1.16%. 
  • Eating & Drinking Places sales ROSE 1.64%  
  • Food & Beverage Stores sales ROSE 1.44%  
  • Gas Stations sales ROSE 4.1%  
  • General Merchandise Stores sales FELL -0.18%  
  • Building & Garden Supply sales ROSE 1.09%  
  • Health & Personal sales ROSE 0.46%  
  • Clothing Stores sales were nearly unchanged,  -0.02% 
Article by Contingent Macro