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Consumer Confidence: Uncertain But Still Off Lows

January 31, 2023
Bottom Line:  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell modestly in January after the rebound in December was revised higher. Consumers' expectations for strong labor markets eased just a bit while their outlooks for business conditions deteriorated. Countering the lower inflation expectations seen in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, consumers in this survey reported higher inflation expectations, up to 6.8% from 6.6%. Overall, consumers remain uncertain about the outlook, but for now, they appear to have adjusted to higher interest rates and modestly higher inflation, as long as inflation doesn't re-accelerate.
Consumer Confidence
in January FELL -1.9  to 107.1, ABOVE the 3-month average of 105.83, ABOVE the 6-month average of 105.18 but -4 BELOW the year-ago level.
The current conditions index ROSE 3.5. The expectations index FELL -5.6. Year-ahead inflation expectations FELL -5.6  to 77.8, BELOW the 3-month average of 79.3, BELOW the 6-month average of 78.52, and -11 BELOW the year-ago level.
The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are 'plentiful' from those who said jobs are 'hard to get' ROSE 2.4  to 36.9, ABOVE the 3-month average of 34.3, ABOVE the 6-month average of 34.8 but -6.1 BELOW the year-ago level.

Article by Contingent Macro