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Jobless Claims: Third Decline
August 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the third week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor. Claims fell in Hawaii after a one-week jump following the devastating fire in Maui. Ohio, which had been struggling with claim fraud, saw another decline, while New York saw an increase. Overall, the labor market remains off the tightest levels but still historically tight. Moreover, there are few signs that the uptrend that started in March will continue and push claims above the high end of the range, just over 260k.Initial Jobless Claims FELL -4k in the week ended August 26th to 228k, BELOW the 4-week average of 237.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 241.46154k but 22k ABOVE the year-ago level.Continuing Claims ROSE 28k in the week ended August 19th to 1.725M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.70425M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.722846M and 382k ABOVE the year-ago level.
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Contingent Macro
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