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Jobless Claims: Slight Uptick

August 3, 2023
Bottom Line:  Claims rose for the first time in five weeks, rebounding slightly. Still, initial and continuing claims were trending lower throughout most of July. The four-week average for claims in the final full week of July was down to just over 228k, well below the 13-week average of 239k. Moreover, there were no significant aberrations in any states, and seasonal adjustments were modest. Overall, jobless claims suggest the labor market remains tight. Tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report will shed more light on that, but it looks likely to be at least as strong as the 200k consensus.
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 6k in the week ended July 29th to 227k, BELOW the 4-week average of 228.25k, BELOW the 13-week average of 239.07692k but 9k ABOVE the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL -8.485k.
Continuing Claims ROSE 21k in the week ended July 22nd to 1.7M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.71225M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.752077M but 350k ABOVE the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro