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Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline

March 16, 2023
Bottom Line:  Jobless claims fell sharply last week after jumping for the first time in five weeks. There were no major seasonal adjustments last week. Moreover, the surprising increases we saw in New York reversed almost entirely, while those in Califronia reversed slightly. As we noted last week, it was too early to call a turn in the trend. Labor markets remain tight for now.
Initial Jobless Claims FELL -20k in the week ended March 11th to 192k, BELOW the 4-week average of 196.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 199.07692k but 15k ABOVE the year-ago level. Claims for the 4th of Mar were revised up from +211k to +212k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL -21.396k Continuing Claims FELL -29k in the week ended March 4th to 1.684M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.6765M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.674M and 90k ABOVE the year-ago level.
Continuing Claims for the 25th of Feb were revised down from +1.718M to +1.713M The Insured Jobless Rate were unchanged in the week ended March 4thThe insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro