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Jobless Claims: Trending Higher

July 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, making marginal new highs for the year, despite the 4th of July holiday as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. This was the sixth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. While historically still low, the shift in trend is a big concern and bears close watching going forward. It appears the red-hot labor market is finally cooling. 
Our Nowcast model is still running a bit below the reported level of claims, suggesting we are unlikely to see a sharp spark in claims, but its trend has also turned modestly higher.
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 9k in the week ended July 9th to 244k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 235.75k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 215.53846k but 147k BELOW the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 21.384k.
Continuing Claims FELL 41k in the week ended July 2nd to 1.331M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.3395M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.344615M and 1.785M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 25th of Jun were revised down from +1.375M to +1.372M.
The Insured Jobless Rate FELL -10bps in the week ended July 2ndThe insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro