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Jobless Claims: Trending Higher

July 7, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, making marginal new highs for the year as the trend continued to creep slowly higher.  This was the fifth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. While historically still low, the shift in trend is a big concern and bears close watching going forward. It appears the red-hot labor market is finally cooling.
Our Nowcast model is still running a bit below the reported level of claims, suggesting we are unlikely to see a sharp spark in claims, but its trend has also turned modestly higher.
Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 4k in the week ended July 2nd to 235k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 232.5k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 211k but 168k BELOW the year-ago level. . Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 11.919k.
Continuing Claims ROSE 51k in the week ended June 25th to 1.375M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.335M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.355846M but 1.855M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 18th of Jun were revised down from +1.328M to +1.324M.
Article by Contingent Macro