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JOLTS: High Quit Rate Suggests Labor Still Tight

February 1, 2023
Bottom Line:  The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed sharply higher job openings for the second consecutive month, closing 2022 back over 11 million. There was a big jump in openings for jobs in leisure and hospitality that drove much of the surprisingly high reading. Higher-paying sectors like education and healthcare and trade, transportation, and warehousing saw lower openings, though. That said, hiring was solid, and the quit rate, often cited by the Fed Chair, edged higher again. While there were some negative revisions to November data, this report will confound those on the FOMC who were hoping to signal an end to the rate hiking cycle today. This report offers only scant hope of an easing in labor market conditions. While we think openings might prove to be structurally higher relative to hiring, it is hard to ignore that the high rate of quits still means the labor market remains tight.
Article by Contingent Macro