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Jobless Claims: Continue to Inch Higher

August 4, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher again last week, mostly as expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the ninth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a big concern and bears close watching going forward. The red-hot labor market is finally cooling. 
Our Nowcast model is now running only a bit below the reported level of claims, confirming the trend has also turned higher, despite some anomalies in the seasonal adjustments of the reported data. 
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors