Consumer Confidence: Further Slump

Bottom Line:  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell in April, led lower by slumping future expectations. While individuals' expectations for their personal income prospects were unchanged, they were more pessimistic about the outlook for business conditions and the labor market. Moreover, the downturn in future expectations was particularly pronounced in consumers under age 55 with household earnings over $50k, an important segment for consumption trends. The current level of the future expectations index has historically been associated with a recession in the next year. Finally, year-ahead inflation expectations edged slightly lower to 6.2%. Overall, consumers remain uncertain about the outlook and high-interest rates, and they are now concerned that the jobs market might finally start to slow.