Jobless Claims: Flashing Warning Signs

Bottom Line: Claims fell less than expected last week with the medium-term averages in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. This was the third week over 220k. While historically still low, the shift in trend is a big concern and bears close watching going forward. It appears the red-hot labor market is finally cooling. 
 
Our Nowcast model is still running a bit below the reported level of claims, suggesting we are unlikely to see a sharp spark in claims, but its trend has also turned modestly higher.