ADP Employment: Better Than Expected But Offset By Negative Revisions
November 30, 2016
Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose moderately in November, more than expected, but revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted 35k jobs. Goods producing industries continued declines, falling for the third month in four, led by manufacturing jobs. That was offset by a sharp rise in the number of service jobs, which saw their biggest gains since June. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report leaves upside risk to the consensus estimates for Friday's non-farm-payroll report, currently expected to show a gain of 180k jobs in September. ADP National Employment ROSE by 217k in September, compared with market expectations for a gains of 170k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 35k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 187k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 11k jobs and Manufacturing lost 10k workers. Construction gained 2k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 228k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 68k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 69k, and Financial Activities increasing by 12k workers. Small Firms hired 37k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 89k employees while Large Firms subtracted 8289k positions.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors