Jobless Claims: New Claims Decline Moderately

December 31, 2015
Jobless Claims ROSE by 20k during the week ended December 26th to 287k, the highest level since July, compared with market expectations for a small increase to 270k. The 4-week average ROSE by 5k to 277k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 269k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 3k during the week ended December 19th to 2,198k. The 4-week average ROSE by 9k to 2,220k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 102k to 2,185k during the week ended December 12th. Continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.6% during the week ended December 19th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance. Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed moderately and are at their highest level since July. The 4-week average is at 277k, above the 13-week average that is now 269k, indicating labor market trends are deteriorating modestly. However, we do get volatile data during this time of the year due to fluctuations in filings during the holidays. The continuing claims rose slightly but remained on their 6-year long declining trend.
Article by contingentmacro