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Jobless Claims: Holding Near Lows

February 13, 2020

Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims rose only slightly after a sharp decline in the last week of January. The seasonal adjustment factor was lower in the previous week but will pick back up again with the upcoming holiday weekend. The 4-week average is at 212k, below the 13-week average that is now 219k, a positive signal for labor market trends. We noted last week that we're non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims (bottom chart), which edged above previous seasonal highs - continue to keep an eye on this. But, it fell modestly with last week's data.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 2k during the week ended February 8th to 205k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 215k. The 4-week average was UNCHANGED at 212k and the 13-week average FELL by 1.7k to 219k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 61k during the week ended February 1st to 1,698k after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,731k to 1,759k. The 4-week average FELL by 18k to 1,727k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 70k to 2,083k during the week ended January 25th.

The Insured Jobless RateSTAYED at 1.2% during the week ended February 1st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors