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Case Shiller Home Prices: Barely Register Gains

August 27, 2019

Bottom Line: Home prices inched higher in June with the three-month average annualized rate down to 1.2%, suggesting a continued deceleration trend from the year-on-year pace of 2.2%. Home prices fell in the New York, Miami and Seattle metro areas with year-on-year prices in once red-hot Seattle now down 1.3%. Most cities continue to city modest year-on-year gains with the Phoenix and Vegas metro areas still leading gains, up over 6+%, compared to just over 2% nationally. Overall, the trend is towards very slow house price appreciation on average nationwide as these higher priced markets settle into a new equilibrium after a sharp adjustment to tax changes in early 2018.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.04% (seasonally adjusted) in June to 216.0, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.1%.

Home prices are 2.2% ABOVE their year ago level.

Nationwide home prices are now just 4.5% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 57.9% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.3% on the month.

Housing prices rose in 17 of the 20 metro areas in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 19 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Seattle had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.3% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 6.6%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors