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Mortgage Apps:  Seasonal Factors Create Volatility

September 20, 2017

Bottom Line: Seasonal adjustments around the Labor Day holiday proved greater than the actual volatility of the un-adjusted data. The seasonally-adjusted jump seen in the week ended September 8th reversed last week. Overall the trend over the last three months remained towards slower purchase applications and a slight uptick in refinancing applications, albeit from very low levels.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index FELL by 9.7% during the week ended September 15 to 417.5, slightly below its 13 week average of 418.2 and 21.3% BELOW its year ago level.

The Purchase Index FELL by 10.8% to 224.7, modestly below its 13 week average of 237.2 but 1.6% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Refinance Index FELL by 8.5% to 1,498. With this decline, refinancing activity is modestly above its 13 week average of 1,427 but 35.1% BELOW its year ago level.

Contract Mortgage Rates ROSE with the 30-year fixed rate increasing by 1 bp to 4.04% and with the 15-year fixed rate increasing by 5 bps to 3.35%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors