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Jobless Claims: Sharp Jump As Nowcasting Predicted

January 14, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were sharply higher last week, above consensus expectations but in-line with our nowcasting model.  At 965k, the seasonally adjusted figure resulted from downward seasonal adjustments of just nearly 132k (seasonally claims were expected to increase last week) from the 1.15 million unadjusted tally.  Expect a few more weeks of difficult seasonal adjustments.  Nonetheless, the trend has been higher since renewed shutdowns in many parts of the country for the virus, with the 4-week average well above the 13-week average.    
Our Nowcasting model forecasted unadjusted claims of 1.1 million, just below the reported figure.  The model suggests claims have fallen just slightly for this week to be reported next Thursday.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 181k during the week ended January 9th to 965k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 789k. The 4-week average ROSE by 18.3k to 834k and the 13-week average ROSE by 9.5k to 797k.
Continuing Claims
ROSE by 199k during the week ended January 2nd to 5,271k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 5,072k to 5,198k. The 4-week average FELL by 59k to 5,216k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 474k to 5,856k during the week ended December 26th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
ROSE by  0.2% to 3.7% during the week ended January 2nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro