Jobless Claims: New Claims Increase Moderately

December 10, 2015
Jobless Claims ROSE by 13k during the week ended December 5th to 282k, then highest level since July 4, compared with market expectations for an increase to 270k. The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 271k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 268k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 82k during the week ended November 28th to 2,243k. The 4-week average ROSE by 17k to 2,183k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 406k to 2,297k during the week ended November 21st. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE to 1.7% during the week ended November 28th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance. Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed moderately and are at their highest level since July. The 4-week average is at 271k, above the 13-week average that is now 268k. This normally might indicate a turn in trend, since the 52-week average is at 279k but we may be in volatility-inducing, seasonal adjustments at this time of year. The continuing claims also rose modestly but remained on their 6-year long declining trend.
Article by contingentmacro