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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Comps Get More Difficult Later This Year

July 31, 2018

Bottom Line: Home prices rose modestly, as expected, with gains decelerating from the pace of late '17 and early '18. For now, year-on-year gains remained steady to even a touch faster than prior years at 6.5%. However, year-on-year comparisons will be more difficult later this year given strong gains late last summer and early fall. The 3 months ended in May saw annualized gains of 3.5% on the 20-city index, well below the pace of gains in the last 6- and 12-months.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) in May to 211.2, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.2%.

Home prices are 6.5% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 2.2% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 54.4% ABOVE their January 2012 trough.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.7% on the month. Housing prices rose in 18 of the 20 metro areas in May (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.

Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.0% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.6%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors