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Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump, No Change in Trend For Now

June 28, 2018

Bottom Line: A sharp jump in California and New Jersey drove a surprise increase in jobless claims in the week ended June 23rd. While this is likely just seasonal volatility that isn't captured in the DOL's adjustments, it will bear watching in the weeks ahead. For now the trend remains towards stronger labor markets.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 9k during the week ended June 23th, 227k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 222k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.7k to 224k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 21k during the week ended June 16th to 1,705k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,723k to 1,726k.The 4-week average FELL by 4k to 1,720k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 4k to 1,584k during the week ended June 9th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended June 16th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors