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Personal Income: Tax Cuts Boost Disposable Income

March 1, 2018
Bottom Line: Personal income rose more than expected in January as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act boosted workers take-home pay. The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted it estimated the impact of bonuses announced by several large companies, so we'd expect some revisions to this data in the coming months. Nonetheless, the trend shows modest acceleration in personal and disposable income. Real consumer spending fell slightly in January, starting the quarter at a a lower rate than it did the previous quarter, indicating consumers have not yet started to spend the tax cut. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, grew 0.27%, 2.1% annualized in the last 3 months and 1.5% over the last 12 months.

Personal Income ROSE by 0.4% in January, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.3%. The prior month was revised higher from 0.35% to 0.38%. Personal Income is now 3.8% ABOVE its year ago level.

Wages and Salaries ROSE by 0.5%, Wages are now 4.6% ABOVE year ago levels. Personal Tax Payments FELL by 3.3% and are now 2.4% ABOVE their year ago level, reflecting the year-on-year changes in employment and income.

Disposable Income ROSE by 0.9% and is now 4.0% ABOVE its year ago level.

Consumer Spending ROSE by 0.2%, compared with market expectations of an increase of 0.2% The prior month was revised lower. There were large decline in durable goods, modest increases in nondurable goods spending and small increases in services spending. Spending is now 4.4% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Saving Rate ROSE by 0.70 points to 3.2%.

The PCE Price Index ROSE by 0.4% and is now 1.7% ABOVE its year ago level. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Index ROSE by 0.3% and is now 1.5% ABOVE its year ago level.

Real Consumer Spending FELL by -0.1% and is now 2.7% ABOVE its year ago level. The January level is 0.7% annualized above its Q4 level.