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Consumer Confidence: More Strong Survey Data

February 28, 2017

Bottom Line: The consumer confidence index eclipsed the 15-year high set in December with consumers' assessment of the present situation and expectations higher. Both surveys of consumers and business managers turned sharply higher after the election and have continued to push higher this year, while "hard" data measuring economic activity has not accelerated yet. While often the "soft"/survey data leads, this trend bears watching as the disconnect is quite large.

Consumer Confidence ROSE by 3.2 points in February to 114.8, compared with market expectations for a decline to 111.0. The index is now 22.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

Present Situation Index ROSE by 3.4 points to 133.4. The index is 16.0% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Expectations Index ROSE by 3.1 points to 102.4. The index is 28.2% ABOVE its year ago level.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved lower by 0.1 points to 5.9.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors