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Jobless Claims: Back to Trend After Holiday Volatility

December 8, 2016

Bottom Line: After holiday-related volatility and difficult seasonal adjustments, claims returned to trend, very little changed when looking at longer-term averages. The 4-week average is at 253k, below the 13-week average that is now 254k, indicating the labor market trends are mostly stable at this point.

Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended December 3rd, 258k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 255k.The prior week was revised moderately lower from 268k to 233k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 253k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.1k to 254k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 79k during the week ended November 26th to 2,005k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,081k to 2,084k.The 4-week average FELL by 10k to 2,029k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 323k to 2,070k during the week ended November 19th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.4% during the week ended November 26th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors