Skip to Main Content

Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.

Durable Goods Orders: Decline Despite Aircraft Orders

October 27, 2016
Bottom Line: Durable goods orders fell in September. Although they have climbed at a 15.9% annualized rate in the last three months, this reflects sharp swings in aircraft orders, evidenced by Boeing's 55 aircraft orders in this report compared to 22 in August, as well as unusually low activity at the end of 2Q. Looking at the past 12 months, hardgood orders have increased at a 1.6% annualized rate. Nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, proxies for equipment and software investment, are modestly below their Q2 level, suggesting that capital spending will likely make a small negative contribution to Q3 GDP growth.

Durable Goods Orders FELL by 0.1% in September, compared with market expectations for unchanged. Moreover, the prior month was revised higher from flat to 0.3%.

Transportation Orders FELL by 0.8% with civilian aircraft orders climbing by 12.5% while motor vehicle orders climbed by 1.2%. Ex-transportation orders ROSE by 0.2%. Electrical equipment, machinery increased while computers and electronic products, fabricated metal products declined.

Core Durable Goods Orders, those excluding both civilian aircraft and defense, ROSE by 0.2% and are 0.2% BELOW their year ago level.
Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments ROSE. Including civilian aircraft, they ROSE by 2.2% and excluding them they ROSE by 0.3%

Durable manufacturing inventories ROSE by 0.1%.

Nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, proxies for equipment and software investment, are modestly below their Q2 level, suggesting that capital spending will likely make a small negative contribution to Q3 GDP growth.