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ADP Employment: Another trend gain

August 31, 2016

Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose moderately in August, nearly as expected as Professional/Business service hiring continued at roughly its pace of the last the 6 month average. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report should do little to change consensus estimates for Friday's non-farm-payroll report, currently expected to show a gain of 180k jobs in August.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 177k in August, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 175k.

Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 11k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 192k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 6k jobs but Manufacturing was unchanged 0k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 2k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 183k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 53k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 26k, and Financial Activities increasing by 15k workers.

Small Firms hired 63k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 44k employees while Large Firms added 70k positions.

Article by contingentmacro