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Jobless Claims: New Claims Decline Slightly

July 21, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims declined slightly and are at their lowest in the past 13 weeks. While, the 52-week average is at 270k, the 13-week average is now 267k and the 4-week average is at 258k, suggesting that claim numbers continue to improve in the past few weeks. These data are for the survey week for the July Employment Situation report--the weekly figure and the 4-week average are modestly lower than in June, suggesting moderate hiring (and a pace of payroll growth similar to June).

Jobless Claims FELL by 1k during the week ended July 16th to 253k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 265k. The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 258k and the 13 week average was UNCHANGED at 267k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed.

Continuing Claims FELL by 25k during the week ended July 9th to 2,128k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,149k to 2,153k. The 4-week average FELL by 3k to 2,141k. Continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 118k to 2,155k during the week ended July 2nd. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.5% during the week ended July 9th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro