Jobless Claims: Back To Trend After Seasonal Adjustments
June 15, 2017
Bottom Line: Adjustments around the Memorial Day holiday are mostly out of the calculations as jobless claims moved back towards the lows of mid-May. With remarkably little volatility in the underlying trend, the 4-week average is at 243k, just below the 13-week average that is now 244k. This suggests labor market conditions are stable at overall strong levels. Jobless Claims FELL by 8k during the week ended June 10th, 237k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 241k. The 4-week average ROSE by 1.0k to 243k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.7k to 244k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 6k during the week ended June 3rd to 1,935k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,917k to 1,929k.The 4-week average ROSE by 9k to 1,927k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 31k to 1,785k during the week ended May 27th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended June 3rd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors