FOMC Update - Jun 2025
June 18, 2025
As expected, the FOMC did not change its benchmark rate range from 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. The Fed’s economic projections maintain 50bp of rate cuts in 2025. However, they raised their 2025 inflation projections to 3% (up from 2.7%), decreased 2025 GDP estimates to 1.4% from 1.7%, and increased 2025 unemployment projections to 4.5% (from 4.4%).
Rates and Market:
Rates and Market:
- Fed Funds Target: 4.25%-4.50%.
- Market Reaction: The S&P 500, UST 2Y and UST 10Y were mostly unchanged. The market is pricing a 60% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the September 2025 FOMC meeting.
The FOMC announced the following actions and analysis:
- Unanimous policy vote
- The Fed stated uncertainty about the economic outlook has “diminished but remains elevated”.
- The Fed will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities.