FOMC Update - Sep 2025
September 17, 2025
As expected, the FOMC changed its benchmark rate range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% for the first time this year. The Fed projects an additional 50bp in rate cuts by the end of 2025. Fed median projections for 2025 GDP rises to 1.6% from 1.4% in June. Unemployment projection by the end of 2025 is 4.5%.Rates and Market:
- Fed Funds Target: 4.00%-4.25%.
- Initial Market Reaction: The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged. US Treasury Yields decreased by roughly 2-3bp across the curve. The market is pricing a 93% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the October 2025 FOMC meeting.
The FOMC announced the following actions and analysis:
- 11-1 policy vote with 1 dissent in favor of a 50bp cut
- The statement acknowledged the labor market softening, similar to last September, job gains slowed, unemployment edged up, inflation increased
Previous Report
FOMC Update - Jul 2025 (07/30/25)
As expected, the FOMC did not change its benchmark rate range from 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The US economy grew at a better-than-expected pace of 3% in the second quarter. The Fed downgraded its assessment from...