FOMC - Mar 2026

March 18, 2026
Amidst elevated uncertainty about economic outlook and uncertain implications of developments in the Middle East, the Fed maintains a pause for the second consecutive time. The Fed revised projections for GDP and inflation higher, while implied projection for interest rates unchanged from December.
Rates and Market:
  • Fed Funds Target: 3.50% – 3.75%
  • Market Reaction: Markets are pricing a 97% chance of another rate pause at the next FOMC meeting and 1 rate cut this year.

The FOMC announced the following actions and analysis:
  • 11-1 policy vote. Governor Miran was the only vote in favor of a 25bp cut.
  • Jerome Powell stated “… if we don’t see inflation progress, we won’t see rate cuts.”
  • The Fed noted they will carefully monitor economic information and remain strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective.

Previous Report

FOMC Update - Jan 2026 (01/28/26)
As expected, the FOMC did not change its benchmark rate at this meeting, pausing after three cuts in 2025. Policymakers held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% and signaled a cautious stance on future cuts.