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ADP Employment: Swift Rebound in April

May 1, 2019

Bottom Line: ADP said job growth rebounded sharply in April, beating estimates after a miss in March. There were also upward revisions to March data. Service producing jobs, a source of weakness in March, led the rebound. The construction sector also rebounded, confirming slow gains in March were also weather-related. The last three months averaged 215k new jobs, in-line wit the six month average and only a touch below the 12-month average. Overall trend job creation has remained around 230k jobs a month for over 5 years now. Finally, ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number -- this report suggests upside risk to Friday's 187k consensus for non-farm payroll jobs.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 275k in April, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 180k.
Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 46k to the previous estimate.

Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 223k per month, lifting employment to 2.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 52k jobs as Manufacturing gained 5k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 49k jobs.

Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 223k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 59k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 37k, and Financial Activities increasing by 6k workers.

Small Firms hired 77k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 145k employees while Large Firms added 53k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors