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Jobless Claims: Another Bounce, But No Shift In Trend Yet

May 24, 2018

Bottom Line: Initial claims rose for the second time in two weeks, hitting their highest levels since early April after reaching record lows at the end of April. While seasonal adjustments were small, volatility at the state level indicates that these last two weeks are not a major shift in trend. The 4-week average, 220k, is still below the 13-week average that is now 224k.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 11k during the week ended May 19th, 234k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 220k.The 4-week average ROSE by 6.3k to 220k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.2k to 224k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 29k during the week ended May 12nd to 1,741k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 1,871k to 1,712k.The 4-week average FELL by 23k to 1,752k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 8k to 1,603k during the week ended May 5th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended May 12nd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors