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ADP Employment: Sharply Higher with Positive Revisions

August 30, 2017

Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose sharply in August, led by gains in trade,transportation and utilities, sectors which can be rather volatile. Most other sectors were rather steady compared with July. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would normally suggest modest upside risk to the 180k consensus for Friday, but we expect the potential for volatility on either side of that given some of technical aspects with teacher hiring and the report being released just one day after the last day of August.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 237k in August, compared with market expectations for a gains of 185k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 28k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 207k per month, lifting employment to 2.0% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 33k jobs but Manufacturing gained 16k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 18k jobs.

Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 204k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 39k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 56k, and Financial Activities increasing by 11k workers.

Small Firms hired 48k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 74k employees while Large Firms added 115k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors