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ADP Employment: Strong Gains

March 31, 2021
Bottom Line:   ADP reported sharply higher job gains in March, mostly as expected.  March was slightly below consensus, but there were upward revisions to prior data that largely made up for the miss.   Overall, the report was strong and bodes well for job creation to be reported in Friday's non-farm payroll report.   The consensus is currently 650k, and that appears achievable given these data and trends in initial and continuing jobless claims.  Expect most of the gains to come from the services sector, especially hospitality, as these ADP data showed following more reopenings.
ADP National Employment ROSE by 517k in March, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 550k.   Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 61k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have decreased by an average of -735k per month, lifting employment to 6.8% BELOW its year-ago level.
Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 80k jobs as Manufacturing gained 49k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 32k jobs.  Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 437k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 83k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 92k, and Financial Activities increasing by 9k workers.
Small Firms hired 174k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 188k employees while Large Firms added 155k positions.