Jobless Claims: Seasonals Back In Play
April 11, 2019
Bottom Line: Seasonal factors were back in play last week as actual claims rose 11k but the seasonal factor expected an increase of 18k, bringing seasonally adjusted claims to the lowest level since October, 1969. Expect seasonal factors to drive the headline claims number for a couple more weeks as the Easter holiday causes difficult seasonal adjustments this time of year. Overall the trend remains towards tighter labor markets with the 4-week average at 207k, below the 13-week average that is now 218k. Jobless Claims FELL by 8k during the week ended April 6th, 196k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 210k.The 4-week average FELL by 7.0k to 207k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.9k to 218k. Continuing Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended March 30th to 1,713k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,736k to 1,726k.The 4-week average FELL by 11k to 1,735k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 50k to 1,858k during the week ended March 23th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended March 30th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors