Case-Shiller Home Prices: Increase Modestly

February 23, 2016
Bottom Line: Home prices rose in December for the 5th consecutive month, slightly below expectations. Prices are 34.7% above the cyclical nadir in January 2012. Over the past year and a half home price trends are still positive but decelerating modestly. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.8% (seasonally adjusted) in December to 184.2, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.9%. This was the index's 5th monthly increase after 4 consecutive monthly declines. The prior month was revised from 0.94% to 0.96%. Home prices are 5.8% ABOVE their year ago level. This was the 44th consecutive year-over-year increase following 20 straight months of year-over-year declines. Nevertheless, nationwide home prices are still 10.9% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April 2005 levels and 34.7% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. (On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index was UNCHANGED and is now 5.7% ABOVE their year earlier level.) Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metropolitan areas in December (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in all metropolitan areas on a year-over-year basis. Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.1% while San Francisco had the largest year-over-year increase at 12.1%.
Article by contingentmacro